The weekend market for BTC has been fluctuating downwards between 95,500 and 98,000, with a very small drop in value. Given that everyone was aware of the Fed's interest rate decision last week, with expectations of a rate cut, the capital utilized the market's bullish sentiment to preemptively crash before Christmas, leading to a sharp decline in BTC.
Currently, the market generally expects BTC to drop to 80,000 points, with some even predicting a fall to 73,000. I would like to share my personal thoughts and suggestions.
First of all, capital always preemptively crashes at key moments when you know a crash is coming. Although many say that Powell's remarks led to a bearish outlook for the market and BTC's crash, it is actually a tactic of capital. It is important to know that behind the Federal Reserve is Jewish capital, and currently, the largest institution in BTC is BlackRock, the world's largest financial services company, with Jewish interests backing it. Moreover, the weekend still shows a slight downtrend. Coupled with major institutions making bearish statements about the market, and with Christmas not yet arriving, the action to lure shorts is quite evident.
From the current market support perspective, 95,400 is a strong support level. If it breaks, the market will likely head towards 94,000. Whether it will reach the lowest point of 92,200 depends on the current long-short ratio. Once the short position reaches the expectations of capital, either a rally will begin.
Considering that last Friday's core PCE year-on-year rate was below expectations and Trump is set to return to the White House on January 20, the bull market is not over yet; there is still a wave of explosive growth to come.
Therefore, for spot trading, do not pursue an extreme position. If 95,400 is not breached, enter a third of your position. If it breaks, then watch 94,000. If it doesn't break, enter another third. Keep 40% for observation. If the market rallies and breaks 98,000, then go all in. Do not be nervous about spot trading; time is the printing machine, and Trump’s return is your moment of glory.
Additionally, regarding contracts, I still recommend spreading your positions to go long at 95,400 and 94,000. Also, consider strong liquidation below 80,000. If 95,400 breaks, you can choose to short as a hedge. If it does not break, shorts can exit at 94,000, while longs can enter. If it breaks, continue to hold. As long as the market explodes and shorts can choose to exit at breakeven when the market is about to rise and break 95,400, the goal is clear: to protect long positions for the long term. If the market breaks 98,000, then consider going long again. The target is clear: we are looking for the next wave of bulls.
As for those trading in waves, I still recommend the "Short Probe Method," which can be attempted for both long and short positions.