BTC has completed in three days what would have taken several days of ups and downs. The sharp decline in a short time has forced many leveraged investors to be liquidated, causing some panic in the market.
Right now, the 92600 position is crucial. If BTC can hold this level and not break below this range, it can stabilize and start to rebound, maintaining the overall trend. But if it can't hold, we need to be careful as it may continue to fall.
When prices are falling, negative news abounds, and when they are rising, positive news is plentiful; that's just how it is. Due to the decline, many negative emotions have emerged online, but these messages haven't brought any real substantial negativity; they mainly affect people's emotions.
It's not just cryptocurrency; U.S. stocks are in a similar situation. Due to the negative impact from Powell and some economic data, this week will continue to be discussed. For example, tonight's PCE data, if it rebounds as expected, will make the bulls even more anxious.
However, whether bullish or bearish, people's emotions are measured weekly. So by next week, the negative emotions from this week should gradually dissipate. However, as Christmas approaches, the market may enter a brief period of calm, with trading becoming less active.
The current price drop is partly a preemptive reaction to Christmas sentiments, as everyone wants to hedge early.
After the PCE data comes out tonight, if BTC can hold 92600, that would basically mean stability. We can observe the market performance over the weekend to get a rough expectation for next week’s Christmas.
Many people are likely to buy ETH around 3000, and other altcoins have largely digested their leverage during this BTC decline. We are currently in a short-term cleaning phase.
The RSI indicator has dropped to 42, down from 45, indicating it may have reached a point where it can rebound.
There is currently a negative premium between BTC futures and spot prices, which is also related to the recent options expiration. The expiration period tends to calm the futures and options market a bit.
Overall, the current negative news mainly affects people's emotions, leading to a decline, but there is no real substantial harm. Once the emotions are released, the market will return to normal.
Remember that survivor bias is common in the investment market; when prices are rising, everyone talks about good news, and when they are falling, they talk about bad news. Many of the current negative news is meant to prove that the decline is justified, so don't let these emotions affect your judgment.
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