As the dust settles on the 2024 U.S. presidential election, it has been less than a month since Trump returned to the White House. Of course, developing the economy is still the top priority for Trump, and as for the current U.S. national debt of 36 trillion U.S. dollars, Trump seems to have "new ideas."

After all, during his campaign he even expressed his desire to use Bitcoin as a national strategic reserve currency. Now, some U.S. states have already started related actions. Combined with a recent statement by an important industry insider that Bitcoin could potentially rise to $500,000, provided the U.S. government steps in, it seems like there's a real chance the U.S. will be able to use Bitcoin to resolve its massive debt, but is it really that simple?

Trump's Dream of Saving the Country with Bitcoin

Since Trump's victory in the election, the price of Bitcoin has generally risen sharply. Obviously, the market is still very sensitive to Trump's remarks. After all, although Trump is unreliable most of the time, he is still quite capable of taking action.

Moreover, last month, Pennsylvania, an economic powerhouse on the East Coast, also passed the (Bitcoin Rights Act), taking the first step for U.S. state governments to reserve Bitcoin. This move, when fed back to the market, is naturally a shot in the arm.

A few days ago, a state representative in Texas submitted a similar bill.

Obviously, regardless of whether Trump takes action or not, the following states are likely to take action one after another.

As mentioned earlier, the person who advocated that Bitcoin would rise to $500,000 was Bitwise’s CIO Matt Hogan.

He said:

Of course, you could say he was just bragging, but overall it wasn't that far-fetched.

However, after the Federal Reserve Chairman recently made it clear that they do not intend to hold Bitcoin, it began to fall sharply again, which was also expected.

Obviously, this thing lacks the endorsement of national credit after all, so everyone is still very cautious.

However, since Trump has this idea and many states in the United States are also taking action, it proves that it is at least feasible to a certain extent. So what is the logic behind this?

First of all, of course, it can ease the pressure on the US dollar, which is something Trump attaches great importance to.

Once the US government starts to crack down on Bitcoin, it will indeed gain a lot of benefits in a short period of time.

And as Matt Hogan said, once the US government bets on Bitcoin, most governments around the world will follow suit, and the price of Bitcoin will skyrocket.

This will attract the inflow of international capital, thereby forming a reservoir effect for the US dollar and helping to alleviate inflationary pressure in the United States.

In addition, in theory, the U.S. government can achieve the goal of debt reduction and debt laundering through operations in the Bitcoin market, that is, first advocating to push up the price of Bitcoin, and then shorting it to make a profit at the right time to complete debt restructuring.

However, all of the above are very idealistic. If they are to be realized, there will be too many problems.

It is rootless water

Although Trump's words pushed the price of Bitcoin to continue to rise, Powell's words caused it to plummet again. It is obvious that the price of Bitcoin is difficult to predict and control.

Its price is likely to change dramatically if there is market or political turmoil, or even just tightening of economic regulation.

Powell's clear statement on Bitcoin and interest rate cuts will obviously be a direct obstacle for Trump to achieve his wish.

Now, the price of Bitcoin is still rising overall, and many countries and investors are also eyeing it.

But the problem is that most of these price increases are just hype, not because the product is really worth that much money.

In this way, Bitcoin is like a bubble that keeps getting bigger and bigger, and the risk is too great.

Everyone thinks that Bitcoin can make money, so they rush in to buy and sell it, hoping to make a quick buck. This makes the market even more unstable.

Although some places, such as China, have begun to regulate cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, in general, there is still no complete set of legal rules to constrain them, which makes it easy for scammers and money launderers to take advantage.

Besides, the Bitcoin network itself is not that reliable or indestructible.

Once the system is hacked or encounters any malfunction, all the money will be wasted and the entire market may collapse.

Therefore, if the Trump administration still wants to help the United States by promoting Bitcoin, it may indeed attract some foreign money in the short term, which will be good for the US dollar and US bonds and alleviate considerable economic pressure.

It will also make the global financial market even more turbulent, and the probability and outcome of a financial crisis will be much greater.

As the world's leading economy, the United States' position in the global market is self-evident.

If it deliberately disrupts the market for its own benefit, it will likely suffer a bad reputation, and whether the dollar hegemony can be maintained at that time is another matter.

Moreover, even if Trump really did this, countries around the world would definitely strengthen supervision when they see how big the Bitcoin market is.

So in the final analysis, Trump's idea is certainly feasible, but even if everything goes well, it will only be a temporary benefit in the end.

But then again, given Trump's personality and the fact that he has no pressure to be re-elected, it is not impossible that he would do this for short-term gain.

After all, no one understands Bitcoin better than Trump. #比特币战略储备