Yesterday’s drop was like 3.12, and today’s drop was more like a follow-up or aftershock of 3.13.
In the past 24 hours, the entire network has liquidated $1.023 billion, and more than 300,000 people have been liquidated. Cherish your life and stay away from contracts. Yesterday, the amount of liquidation of the copycat was far more than that of the big cake. Today, the decline is also not small, but the liquidation amount is much less. It seems that the long positions of the copycat are basically gone.
This time, the long positions have been blown up, and now it’s time for the short positions to be blown up. Currently, the long position amount is 1.3 billion. The short position amount is 9.3 billion. Is the short position panicking?
From this weekend to next week, we will see a rebound, but a reversal may not be possible. It is dark before dawn. Keep a good attitude.
To summarize the recent market and operations:
This is how the market works. Every time your fantasy and hope come true, it will always give you a blow!
Powell's words early yesterday morning shocked more than 300,000 people. They thought that the rumors would disappear, but the bears came back and said that the Fed had no intention of participating in any government plan to hoard a large amount of cryptocurrencies. In addition, the Fed meeting lowered its expectations for interest rate cuts next year. As a result, the cryptocurrency market has experienced four rapid declines, and this is the fifth time.
It can be said that the previous four sharp declines consumed a large amount of buying, so after this sharp decline, there were not many buying orders on the market. Instead, there was a negative decline after sideways trading, which was equivalent to burying another wave of bottom-fishing funds.
So in the short term, it will be difficult to return to a strong position:
The overall market enthusiasm was too high some time ago. If nothing unexpected happens, the market, with the knife handed over by Powell, should be rapidly completing the strongest cleansing on the eve of the copycat bull market. However, a greater wealth effect is about to come after this wave. No matter how embarrassed it is now, as long as it survives, it will eventually stand on the highest stage.
Operation suggestions: Do not blindly buy at the bottom, do not follow the trend, layout the mainstream, do not use high leverage, do a good job of position management, watch more and act less, and follow the trend.
In the long run, the current decline is not a big deal:
Let's talk about Powell's bearishness on Bitcoin. It is known that Trump is bullish, and Trump's power is basically capped in the United States. Powell's resignation is just a matter of words. Even if he is not removed, Arthur Hayes believes that Chuanzi can check and balance Powell through his nominated Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
In short, this wave of market decline is indeed a bit impulsive, and rational thinking should be to distinguish between big and small kings;
Besides, in the first quarter of next year, FTX will pay out 16 billion in compensation and there will be strategic reserve plans of various states. The Federal Reserve cannot control these. The Federal Reserve is just an institution that prints money, and the Treasury Department is the one that spends the money. Therefore, the long-term upward trend of Bitcoin has not changed. This wave of correction is to clear the leverage and then get everyone on board.
There are two main reasons for this sharp drop:
One is that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut plan for next year is not strong enough, which has caused bad luck for the U.S. stock market and Bitcoin as well;
Another thing is that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that they will not buy Bitcoin and do not want to change the law.
But I think these two problems are temporary and the market will digest them after a while.
So can we buy at the bottom now?
At this stage, if your position is not heavy, you can use the strategy of buying more when the price drops sharply, buying less when the price drops slightly, and not buying when the price does not drop sharply to pick up low-priced chips in batches.
The current state of the entire market is that Bitcoin and Ethereum have more buying orders from the bottom because of the backend support of spot ETFs and big capital, but most of the altcoins lack the support of big capital, so once they fall, there is no support. It mainly depends on market sentiment.
Therefore, it is important to control your position at this time, and there are also some tips on how to execute the strategy:
You can basically buy the top 100 copycats (with a market value of more than 1 billion), it’s not a big problem. When the copycat bulls come, it’s just a matter of how much you make.
Going further, for example, the top 500 copycats (market value of more than 100 million) will really test your selection vision. If you make the wrong choice, you may miss the entire copycat market, but if you make the right choice, you can make considerable profits.
The most important thing is not to open contracts, not to use leverage, and only buy spot goods. For any copycat, even in a violent bull market, it is basically a piece of cake to use leverage of more than 3x.
If you are optimistic about the future market, hold on for a while; if you are not optimistic, run away. These are all correct operations. The only wrong operation is to chase the rise and sell the fall! We can only and need to be responsible for our own accounts.
