Bitcoin Plummets, What's Next

1. BTC has recently experienced a pullback, with altcoins bleeding heavily. We issued a warning on December 10. Bitcoin may undergo consolidation in the near future. There are many reasons for Bitcoin's significant drop, such as the Federal Reserve lowering the interest rate expectations for 2025. However, in Chili Brother's view, this is just a trigger; the fundamental reason is that a number of long-term holders have recently exited. On-chain indicators are usually the fundamental reasons affecting prices, while news is often just a trigger.

2. In March of this year, when Bitcoin surged to 70,000, everyone was optimistic about the arrival of a raging bull market, but Chili Brother reminded that based on the MVRV and Bitcoin realized price indicators, 70,000 was at the top zone. In fact, a pullback followed in the subsequent months.

3. In May of this year, Bitcoin was in a continuous downtrend, causing panic in the market. Based on the UPRD indicator, Chili Brother assessed that Bitcoin's bottom was in the 50,000 range. In fact, Bitcoin found support in the 50,000 range in the following months.

4. In October of this year, when Bitcoin was in the 60,000 range, Chili Brother warned that a new wave of increases might start in the next three months. In fact, less than a month later, Bitcoin surged from 60,000 to 90,000.

5. Bitcoin is currently just fluctuating, and there will still be new highs in the coming months. Since buying coins in 2015 up to today, Chili Brother has realized that the price of Bitcoin is influenced by on-chain data, not news. Key on-chain data can often guide Bitcoin's market in the next 3-6 months.