Analyze the BTC candlestick chart (especially the 1-hour and 4-hour charts), and combine it with recent market trends to provide today's market price predictions and reasonable operation suggestions. The following judgments are based on technical analysis:
1. Current Market Trend Analysis
Short-term Trend (1-hour Chart)
Price Pattern: Recent prices have dropped from the high of $108,366 to the current level around $96,700, forming a clear downward trend.
Moving Average System: The arrangement of MA(5), MA(10), and MA(30) shows a bearish trend, with significant pressure on short-term rebounds.
Bollinger Bands (BOLL): The candlestick has repeatedly touched the lower Bollinger band, and the middle band is opening downwards, indicating that the downward trend is not yet fully stabilized.
Oscillation Indicator: The negative value of DPO continues to expand, indicating that market momentum is bearish, and it may further test the lower support in the short term.
Medium-term Trend (4-hour Chart)
Overall Structure: The 4-hour chart shows that prices have rebounded multiple times but failed to break through MA(30) (approximately $103,482), indicating strong pressure above.
Bollinger Band Shape: The Bollinger Bands continue to widen, and prices are maintaining below the middle band, continuing the weakness.
Key Support: The current key support level is around $95,000. If it breaks, it may further test $94,000.
2. Today's Predictions and Operation Suggestions
Today's Market Prediction
It is highly likely to continue oscillating downward, potentially seeking support in the range of $96,000 to $95,000. If it breaks below $95,000, the next support level is $94,000.
The upper pressure range is between $98,200 and $98,500. If it rebounds to this range, be aware of potential selling pressure.
Long Position Thoughts
First Take Profit Level: $97,500 (short-term rebound may face resistance)
Second Take Profit Level: $98,200 (strong resistance zone)
Stop Loss Level: $95,200 (ensure risk control)
Opening Direction
Short Selling Strategy:
If the price rebounds to the range of $97,500-$98,200, try a light short position, targeting $95,500-$95,000.
Set the stop loss above $98,700.
Wait-and-see Strategy:
If the price stabilizes around $95,000-$94,800, consider lightly buying after clear signals.
3. Risk Warning and Summary
Risk Warning: The market is currently very volatile, and it is necessary to carefully control positions to avoid chasing highs and cutting lows.
Summary: BTC's trend today is weak, and the operation should focus on short positions while paying attention to the support performance at $95,000. Reasonable layout and strict risk control are the best choices in the current uncertain market environment.
Pay attention to market dynamics, adjust strategies in a timely manner, and don't forget to take profits and stop losses!
