Market Information:
• Current price: $97,479
• 24h Change: -2.79%
• 24h Trading Volume: $105.87 billion USD
• Highest in 24h: $102,759
• Lowest in 24h: $95,718
• ATH: $108,135 (down 9.87%)
• Aggregated Long/Short Ratio: 0.8903 (Dominant Short).
• Open Interest: 91.6K BTC.
• Fear & Greed Index: 74 (Greed).
1. Volume Spread Analysis (VSA)
1. Trading Volume:
• Strong volume increase in a downtrend: Signal of increased selling pressure from large investors.
2. Candle & Volume Analysis:
• Strong bearish candle (Wide Spread Bar) with high volume confirms selling pressure from the $102,000 - $97,000 range.
• If the price holds above $95,000 with decreasing volume, this could be a bottom accumulation signal.
VSA Conclusion:
• BTC is under significant selling pressure and may continue to test support at $95,000.
2. Price Action (PA) Analysis
1. Price Action:
• The short-term trend is bearish as the price breaks significant supports at $102,000 and $100,000.
2. Candle Patterns:
• Bearish Engulfing: Confirms downtrend.
• If a Pin Bar appears at $95,000: This could be a bottom accumulation signal.
3. Support and Resistance Levels:
• Support:
• $95,000: Important psychological zone.
• $92,000: Deeper support if $95,000 is broken.
• Resistance:
• $98,500 - $100,000 (nearest resistance).
• $102,000 - $105,000.
PA Conclusion:
• BTC needs to hold the support area of $95,000 to avoid falling into a deeper downtrend.
3. Quantitative Analysis
1. Long/Short Ratio:
• Aggregated Long/Short Ratio: 0.8903 (More Shorts than Longs).
• Dominant Short indicates strong selling pressure, likely to force more Long positions to liquidate.
2. Funding Rate:
• Funding rate: 0.01% (neutral), indicating the market has no strong bias between Long and Short.
3. Open Interest:
• Open Interest remains stable: 91.6K BTC, indicating many positions are still open and liquidation risk increases if the price drops below $95,000.
4. Sparkline (7-day volatility):
• BTC has dropped from $108,000 to $97,479, breaking short-term supports. High volatility in the $98,000 - $102,000 range indicates unstable sentiment.
Quant Conclusion:
• If the price breaks below $95,000, significant Long liquidation pressure could pull BTC down to $92,000.
4. Trend Forecast
Bullish Scenario:
1. Price holds at $95,000 and an accumulation signal appears.
2. Breakout above $98,500 - $100,000 with high trading volume.
3. Short-term bullish target: $102,000 - $105,000.
Bearish Scenario:
1. Price breaks below $95,000 with high volume.
2. Next support: $92,000 - $90,000.
5. Trading Strategy
1. If you are holding Long:
1. Stop Loss: Set at $95,000 to protect capital.
2. Short-term take profit: At $98,500 or $102,000 if the price bounces up.
2. If you are Short:
1. Enter Short if the price breaks $95,000 with high volume.
2. Take profit: At $92,000 or $90,000.
3. If you are on the sidelines:
1. Buy: If the price holds above $95,000 and a clear accumulation signal appears (Pin Bar candle, low volume).
2. Short: If the price breaks below $95,000 with high volume.
6. Conclusion
• Key support: $95,000. If the price breaks below, BTC could drop to $92,000 or $90,000.
• Significant resistance: $98,500 - $100,000. If broken, the price could recover to $102,000 - $105,000.
• Strategy:
• Buy at $95,000 (Stop Loss: $94,500).
• Short if it breaks below $95,000 (Take Profit: $92,000).
