We must consider that after a significant rise of BTC, there should be a correction proportional to it.
Historically, we have seen corrections exceeding 70%, which should prepare us for any event. However, while technical analysis is essential in the crypto chart, fundamental factors are even more relevant, not only in reference to news; validating that we are in a market that does NOT follow rules when it comes to taking profits and liquidating, we must consider every factor, we are in no way exempt from losses or guarantees of profits.
Anyone who tells you that the market will rise or fall is just speculating; no one beyond the strong hands knows what will happen (an action they must have already planned).
There are several factors that lead me to believe that the next major correction of BTC could be between 85 and 90 USD. Not to mention the fundamentals of indicators (Fibonacci clearly reflects this at its 0.61).
Now, let’s try to think like smart traders; let’s consider Trump’s takeover in January; thus questioning, will it be beneficial for the current government to hand over a bitcoin with a high or low rate to the new government? Would it benefit Trump to have a post-halving bitcoin at medium-low prices or a higher ATH? I’m not saying these are the only market owners, but they are a team that has plans for it and how to carry them out.
In summary, I find a fall of BTC this month to be natural; however, I doubt there will be a correction greater than 20%. Subsequently, I personally believe that the major fall cannot be scheduled yet (defining a major fall as a correction greater than 70%). The strong hands are evidently withdrawing capital; they have already accumulated a lot, and if we consider that they will need liquidity for the dates, the event makes more sense. However, the great rise has not yet occurred, nor has the capital flight from BTC to altcoins.
I would believe chronologically:
Great rise - Pending soon
Great fall - Pending, after a greater rise.
I could not set dates, I don’t know, and as I have said, no one should know beyond the market makers.
Let’s not expect an announcement of the rise; we will always be manipulated to sell, leading us to panic. We are not psychologically prepared to see a portfolio drop by 10, 15, 20, or even 50%. We are human, not machines, and although we are asked to remain calm, we cannot help but look and look at our losses. However, as I have been quoting, THEY ARE NOT LOSSES as long as we do NOT sell.
We are NOT going to lose everything no matter how much the market corrects. I still believe that at any moment we will see the great rise and the dominance of BTC jumping to altcoins, but this will not happen until many people are liquidated.
Will you give away your coins to the market owners? Or will you patiently wait for the necessary time to rise with them?
This is not investment advice; I simply hope that you do not panic and give away your money. Most investors here do not have large sources of income to afford losses of hundreds or thousands of dollars, but you must understand that you have to forget about your portfolio for now and let the market make its moves. Be patient, and I assure you that you will soon see positive results.