Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle is based on the halving, which reduces the issuance of new bitcoins and creates scarcity, driving predictable rallies and corrections. Historical data shows:
2012-2013: The 2012 halving led to a super high in 2013, followed by a sharp drop in 2014.
2016-2017: The 2016 halving led to a new high in 2017 and a sharp drop in 2018.
2020-2021: The 2020 halving triggered a bull market in 2021, with a severe correction in 2022.
Now, the super high that was supposed to occur in 2025 appears to have started earlier, in November 2024.
What can anticipate the cycle:
1. Institutional interest: Large purchases can anticipate rallies.
2. Experienced investors: Behavior aligned with expectations of post-halving highs.
3. Macroeconomics: Crises or inflation increase Bitcoin's appeal as a store of value.
4. Predictable history: Repetitive cycles lead investors to act sooner.
This suggests that the super-drop, historically seen in 2014, 2018 and 2022, could occur in mid-2025 rather than 2026.