All kidding aside, here are my recent thoughts on $DOGE and the MEME movement this cycle.
I would not be surprised if after this cycle, $DOGE surpasses $ETH to become the second largest crypto asset by market cap.
1/ Musk’s social experiment
I always believe that the new technology upstarts New Money represented by Musk are conducting experiments to subvert existing sovereign currencies, or they are just adapting to the times.
Use $BTC $DOGE as weapons to seize control of the US dollar from the Federal Reserve and other old money.
To some extent, it contributed to the idea of Mises and Hayek of the Austrian School, namely (denationalization of money).
Credit money has been a commonplace in our lives since we were born. We have been taught since childhood that currency issuance should not be based on a certain standard and that mild inflation is beneficial to the economy. But is this really the case?
Mises pointed out the essence of inflation in his book 100 years ago: the central bank prints too much money, which leads to inflation, that is, the issuance of new money.
Assuming the current fiat currency is 1 trillion and the inflation rate is 2%, it means that 20 billion fiat currencies will be added this year. But where will this additional 20 billion fiat currencies go? Will it flow into your hands? In other words, how much will be left when it flows into your hands?
In some countries, the newly added money is first put into the big projects controlled by the economic oligarchs. Then these big projects are decentralized. The parasites attached to this chain suck the blood and get the right to distribute the newly added money. Others just bear the cost of inflation.
This is why, in small towns with low average income, you can occasionally see luxury cars such as Ferrari and Maserati. Because these people, due to some kind of relationship, have obtained the right to contract projects, occupy the upper reaches of the new money distribution, and are attached to this chain.
Similarly, in other countries, the new money is used to give to interest groups or buy votes. Those voters seem to benefit, but in fact, it is not entirely true.
In essence, different paths lead to the same destination.
The subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 was a classic example of using unequal distribution to bring down the economy. Did any banker go to jail or get punished? No. It was just that ordinary people endured the inflationary pressure brought about by the government printing money to save the market.
In essence, this is the situation faced by countries with central banks. This is also the fundamental reason for the birth of BTC.
In fact, the BTC currency experiment has, to some extent, begun to succeed. If Trump can really add BTC to the US balance sheet as promised, I have no doubt that this is the beginning of BTC becoming a super-sovereign currency.
There is no doubt that human currency may return to a certain standard, such as the dual standard of BTC and gold, or add other crypto assets and real assets to form a package of underlying value supporting legal currency.
In contrast, I think DOGE is more likely to enter the balance sheet after BTC, or become the basis of the underlying value of this basket.
2/ Consensus value outweighs practical value
Why I think DOGE may become the second largest crypto asset in terms of market value in this round. In addition to Musk’s support, the most important reason is that consensus value is greater than practical value.
Many crypto assets, represented by $ETH, are actually utility tokens. The value of ETH is closely related to the performance of Ethereum and the related ecosystem, that is, it can be reasonably priced using a series of valuation logics such as on-chain revenue and cost.
Especially after the ETH ETF was approved and traditional funds had a purchasing channel, they would do so more often, that is, use traditional PE and other valuation models to judge the reasonable price of ETH. To some extent, it has become the ceiling for practical tokens such as ETH.
In contrast, BTC, DOGE, and PEPE are not like this. Of course, we can use some on-chain indicators to value BTC. But these indicators are more about the change of hands and transfer of BTC, and they have a very strong attribute of seeking a sword by looking at the boat.
Therefore, the value of BTC actually depends on consensus, or a rebellious spirit that is dissatisfied with the real legal currency, and identity. The value of consensus, identity, and even freedom are priceless.
The same is true for DOGE and PEPE.
3/ Perhaps the most popular crypto asset.
DOGE is the most popular crypto asset, perhaps the only one. In every bull market, social media is always full of DOGE-related content, even BTC can hardly compare.
MEME itself has the property of spreading. From another perspective, MEME is the tokenization of the rebellious spirit.
If new funds come in, it may be difficult to buy BTC when the price reaches six figures. However, MEME is different, the price is very affordable.
DOGE is the people’s BTC.
Therefore, the DOGE holding group will be larger and more contagious.
If the New Money represented by Musk is really conducting some monetary experiments, or in other words, it is the trend of the times that prompts some people to stand up and lead this era, leading the power-grabbing movement of the emerging class.
Then DOGE needs more stability, a larger group of coin holders, and more ways to reach ordinary people.
Therefore, the only problem with DOGE at present is that the price is not high enough and the market value is not large enough.
I'm not sure if I'm caught in an echo chamber or some kind of self-admiration, but I'm looking forward to the day I'll be there because I'm just an ordinary person.
Come on DOGE, come on crypto market.
