The Fed's hawkish press conference has ended, and your accounts have probably been washed out again, right?
The external factor for this morning's decline was Powell's hawkish speech, which caused a global market crash, with the Nasdaq falling more than 3%. The internal reason for the decline is that BTC itself is already at a high position, and it has continuously diverged upwards. The market sentiment is strong, and with high leverage, there is already a need for a pullback.
Key summary:
1. The Federal Reserve is not interested in holding Bitcoin.
2. Inflation above target may still allow for further rate cuts.
3. Rate hikes are unlikely next year.
4. By the end of 2025, the benchmark interest rate is expected to be lowered twice more (25 basis points each time).
Considering both internal and external factors, this morning's pullback is not surprising. In the short term, as long as the position around 98,000 can be maintained, there is no need to worry too much. It can be regarded as a temporary corrective pullback.
The weakness of Ethereum has exceeded my expectations; not only did it follow Bitcoin down but even the Bitcoin exchange rate cannot keep up. Indeed, it didn't keep up when it was rising, and it fell even more sharply. However, due to the relatively small profit-taking, the rebound momentum in the future may be greater than that of Bitcoin.
Today's good news is Japan's interest rate decision.
The importance of Japan's interest rate decision is greater than that of the US rate cut because the uncertainty and unpredictability are too high. So how will Japan respond today?
I think it depends on how tough Japan's knees are; if they are tough, the possibility of a rate hike is still very high. If the hawkish comments from the Fed create panic in the financial market and Japan raises interest rates, the market might panic even more. At the same time, the bottom is likely to emerge in the future. This is when the test of position management comes.
If Japan does not raise interest rates, then market sentiment will ease, and the bottom has already appeared today, and it will gradually pull back later.
Overall, the market is full of contradictions. The current position has little impact on some retail investors with correct positions, and the decline is not significant; for those who are fully invested and heavily weighted in certain weak altcoins, it will be painful.
When encountering such significant information, a few points:
1. The proportion of low-long positions and pending orders should not exceed 15% of the account funds.
2. For positions with floating profits, set a stop-loss at the breakeven point at the first opportunity to prevent the profit target from not being reached and possibly turning floating profits into floating losses.
3. If the defense point is broken, reduce the position to guarantee 10-15% of the margin, and you can buy back at a lower price to lower the average cost. Some people think of losses when slightly stuck with a low long position, which is the worst strategy.
So, can we bottom-fish at this position?
In my opinion, there’s no need to rush to bottom-fish. A strategy of 'buying heavily on big drops, buying lightly on small drops, and not buying when it doesn't drop' can be adopted to gradually pick up low-priced chips. Currently, due to the support of spot ETFs and traditional large capital, Bitcoin and Ethereum have more buying pressure below, so the decline is limited.
However, most altcoins lack support from large capital, and once they fall, there are no support levels; their trends are mainly determined by market sentiment. Recently launched coins have also lost their profit effect, as prices generally drop continuously after being listed, with the speed of halving increasing.
When the market lacks liquidity and sentiment is low, it is advisable not to touch new coin projects. Also, do not casually chase hot spots to change positions, especially with new coins on Binance or other CEXs, as it is easy to fall into a trap.
As for which coins can be bottom-fished
ETH, SUI, DOGE, Trump Group's coins (ONDO, AAVE, ENA, LINK)
