December 19th Afternoon Outlook

1. Bitcoin, expected to rebound from oversold conditions. Range 99000-102500;

2. Bitcoin, expected to rebound from oversold conditions. Range 3560-3750;

【Risk Events to Note】

2:30 PM Press conference by the Governor of the Bank of Japan, to prevent any negative remarks

Last night's market plummeted due to

① Powell's remarks on 'slowing down interest rate cuts' and 'the Fed is not allowed to hold Bitcoin for now' were negative;

② The recent price surge 'overdrafted' the positive effects of interest rate cuts, leading to the 'good news fully priced in is bad news' curse.

③ Some bullish funds exited the market aggressively.

Thus, it evolved into a spiral decline —

that is: aggressive selling → price drop → more people want to sell → prices drop further → more people panic and want to sell → significant drop

Given that the market's downward momentum slowed down late last night, and rebounded at around 10 AM (approximately 10 PM US time),

it is expected that traders in the US session have largely digested last night's negative news.

Today, it may experience a second bottoming due to the inertia of negative news,

but 【it is expected not to drop significantly again】, and short-term trades can be made for high shorts and low longs during the day.

Furthermore, if a second bottom is reached today 【a swing long position for Bitcoin can be established】.

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