CICC analysis believes that the possibility of an interest rate cut at the January FOMC meeting (January 29) is very small; however, if Trump is elected and inflationary policies are implemented moderately, there may still be a window for rate cuts in the first half of the year; conversely, if the policies are pushed too aggressively, leading the Federal Reserve to assess a significant risk of inflation rising sharply, the pace of rate cuts may be further delayed. The significant decline in rate cut expectations has led to a correction in assets, which in this sense may not be a bad thing, as digesting overly enthusiastic expectations is conducive to more sustainable increases.