12.19 Market Outlook
Bitcoin dropped over 6000 points intraday, and the expected 25 basis point interest rate cut has arrived, yet the market fell instead of rising. The previous daily candlestick closed as a doji, showing a downward attack pattern, indicating that adjustment is inevitable.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's daily chart shows a large bearish candlestick, with trading volume significantly increasing, indicating enhanced downward momentum. At the same time, the 30-day moving average remains upward, and the MACD indicator shows a death cross above the zero line, also suggesting that bearish sentiment is rising. Additionally, the latest Federal Reserve interest rate decision met expectations and is not the main reason for this drop.
It is noteworthy that despite Bitcoin's short-term attempt to break through the $110,000 mark, it ultimately failed to achieve this breakthrough. Previous US stock ETF data shows that while BlackRock continues to increase its holdings, other institutional funds are flowing out, coupled with investor concerns about current economic data, presenting a certain degree of risk aversion. Furthermore, with the upcoming Christmas holiday in the US, the market liquidity may be affected.
At the same time, Bitcoin's daily chart showed a doji candlestick on the previous trading day, indicating that short-term adjustments are inevitable to some extent. We need to closely monitor whether Bitcoin can stabilize, as this will determine the performance of altcoins in the future. Overall, the current market volatility is increasing, and we need to maintain a cautious mindset to seize potential rotation opportunities.
Resistance Reference
112000
Support: 100000-992 - Daily life 966, once it breaks below the trend, resistance support is used to break through.
From the hourly level, it is currently following a rebound from the 1-day MA30 line.
The return to the daily MA30 line is reflected in the 3-minute retracement.
Swing Reference
Around 101400, if it breaks below 100k, look for 992-998 nearby.
992-985 look towards 101111-10800
