In the early morning, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision did not present any unexpected events.
In line with all market expectations, a 25 basis point rate cut was announced, which was followed by Bitcoin continuing its decline.
Several key statements by Powell prompted significant declines in U.S. stocks, gold, and Bitcoin.
First: He signaled that there might only be two rate cuts next year, which changes the previous speculation of four rate cuts by 2025.
Second: He wants to maintain a neutral interest rate because he believes the U.S. economy is strong and does not need continuous rate cuts to achieve inflation moderation. Achieving the 2% inflation target will still take one to two years, considering how tariffs could drive inflation (which aligns with new policies).
Third: A crucial point is the statement regarding Bitcoin reserve policy, which slightly differs from previous remarks. The Federal Reserve neither allows nor intends to hold Bitcoin; strategic reserves are a matter for the Treasury.
More delightfully, Trump's son experienced the feeling of being trapped in the crypto space for the first time; it's quite cool—nobility and commoners are not so different after all.
Additionally, some short positions I recommended during my live stream received positive responses, making it feel worthwhile to stay up late.
The trend of Bitcoin has clearly shown a correction trend. This major drop raises the question of whether Bitcoin is a straight shot down or in a downward fluctuation.
If it is the former, then going long anywhere is wrong. If it is the latter, then the 98k-99k range is a good entry point, and the 95-94k range is also a decent entry point. Capturing a rebound and then shorting will be more beneficial for the market.
Similarly, if it is the former, it indicates that the market will lose many trading opportunities. While I worry about the former, I also have a clear understanding of myself, choosing to short on rallies and exiting near perceived support will be my consistent strategy going forward.
To put it in simpler terms, I believe there will be rebounds at certain support levels, but I won't act on them. I will wait for the rebound to position myself to short again until the daily MACD drops below the zero line and forms a golden cross before I start to buy on dips.
