❗️ The Federal Reserve forecasts only 2 rate cuts in 2025.
❗️ The Federal Reserve's forecasts suggest a 50 bps rate cut in 2025 and another 50 bps in 2026.
▫️The neutral rate forecast has been raised from 2.9% to 3.0%.
▫️The Federal Reserve has raised its inflation forecast for 2024 from 2.3% to 2.4%.
▫️The PCE (inflation) forecast for the end of 2025 has been raised from 2.1% to 2.5%.
▫️The GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been raised from 2.0% to 2.1%.
▫️Economic activity continues to grow at a steady pace.
▫️Since the beginning of the year, labor market conditions have improved.
▫️The unemployment rate has increased but remains low.
▫️Inflation has approached the target of 2%.
▫️The risks to the Federal Reserve's dual mandate are balanced (inflation/labor market).
▫️Economic prospects are uncertain.
▫️Further monetary policy decisions by the Federal Reserve depend on macro data.
Next: live text broadcast of the conference with J. Powell.
