Ethereum $ETH has recently surged past $4,000, achieving a 25% gain over the past 30 days. Despite this milestone, the 7D Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has dropped to -1.35%, indicating short-term holders are facing unrealized losses. This could point to a temporary pullback before a potential recovery.
๐ What the MVRV Ratio Suggests
The 7D MVRV ratio, which measures the profitability of ETH moved within the past week, historically dips to -4% or below before a rebound. The current value at -1.35% suggests ETH could still see downside pressure before buyers step in. This aligns with patterns where pessimistic sentiment often leads to undervaluation and subsequent recovery.
๐ Whale Accumulation: A Bullish Signal?
Ethereum whales have been steadily increasing their holdings in December. Addresses holding 1,000 ETH or more have risen from 5,524 on October 30 to 5,612 as of mid-December. This consistent accumulation reflects growing confidence among major investors, often preceding bullish price action.
๐ฎ Price Levels to Watch
Resistance: ETH faces a key resistance at $3,987. Breaking this level could push prices to $4,100 and potentially beyond, with targets at $4,800โ$4,900 if momentum sustains.
Support: On the downside, ETH has strong support at $3,763. A break below this level could lead to a test of $3,500. If the support at $3,500 fails, ETH may decline further to $3,256.
โ ๏ธ EMA Convergence and Market Outlook
The converging EMA lines suggest weakening bullish momentum. A bearish crossover of the short-term EMA below the long-term EMA could signal downward pressure. However, whale activity and historical MVRV patterns indicate a rebound could follow any significant dip.
๐ฌ Will Ethereum break $4,100, or will it test lower support levels first? Share your thoughts!
Source: beincrypto
Author: Tiago Amaral
