1. Expectations for cryptocurrency ETFs next year: BTC/ETH combination leads, LTC and HBAR may be approved first.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart stated that the approval of Solana and XRP ETFs by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has been postponed and will be reconsidered only after the new SEC management team takes office, with related legal issues still needing resolution. The approval prospects for Litecoin and HBAR ETFs are better, as Litecoin is considered a Bitcoin fork and has not been classified as a security by the SEC. Currently, Canary is the only issuer that has submitted applications for Litecoin and HBAR ETFs, but investor demand remains unclear. Additionally, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas indicated that a wave of cryptocurrency ETFs is expected next year, likely starting with a BTC + ETH combination ETF, followed by Litecoin, then HBAR, and finally XRP/Solana.
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2. The Bitcoin Policy Institute drafted a presidential executive order for Trump to include Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset for the United States.
The Bitcoin Policy Institute drafted a presidential executive order for the Trump administration to include Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset for the United States, recommending the establishment of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) to be included in the Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF). The order advocates for viewing Bitcoin as 'digital gold' to enhance national economic security, solidify the U.S. financial dominance, and promote the development of the digital asset industry. Additionally, the order calls for the integration of government-held Bitcoin and the initiation of a procurement and management plan within 60 days.
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3. QCP: The Federal Reserve is expected to lower rates by 25 basis points at tonight's meeting and signal three rate cuts in 2025.
QCP analysis points out that the Federal Reserve will hold its last meeting of 2024 tonight, and is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points and release the last dot plot of the year. We expect tonight's statement and dot plot to be slightly hawkish, reflecting U.S. inflation stabilizing above the Fed's 2% target and a strong labor market. The statement may not make a clear commitment to the interest rate reduction path for 2025 but rather emphasize the difficulties in accelerating rate cuts. Meanwhile, the dot plot is expected to reveal plans for three rate cuts in 2025.
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4. Arthur Hayes: The cryptocurrency market may experience a short-term crash due to overly high expectations around Trump’s inauguration.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, proposed in a recent lengthy article that Trump may significantly weaken the dollar in the first half of 2025 by raising the official gold price to support U.S. re-industrialization and quickly boost the economy. Hayes noted that this dollar depreciation would not only drive up Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets but could also trigger currency devaluations among major global economies, leading to a new round of monetary easing and asset price inflation. Furthermore, Hayes predicts that the cryptocurrency market may experience a short-term crash due to overly high expectations for policy implementation around Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025. His fund, Maelstrom, plans to reduce some positions during this period and re-buy core assets at lower price points.
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5. He Yi: The Binance alpha area will feature some community hot memes.
Binance co-founder He Yi stated on Twitter space that many projects do airdrops to wash out users who are not real users; most projects lack business models, and those with business models are not valuable, as they are evaluated using web2 models, leaving the entire industry in an awkward period. Ultimately, understanding a project still requires solid contributions to society; truly making money and having profits are what lead to success shared with users. The entire policy direction in the U.S. has made a 180-degree turn, and with Trump’s new policies emerging, it may lead to industry reforms. Most memes will go to zero, and I cannot decide or define which coins will survive; we have a list of over a hundred projects, but indeed many projects are difficult to handle due to various issues, such as poor token models or inflated data; there are also many rumors of insider trading; it’s better to put all coins in the alpha area for everyone to trade; find projects that can survive long-term; project parties can understand that ultimately the project itself has social value and the fruits of labor to share with users and the community; alpha will list some hot meme community projects.
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6. Lawyer: A certain virtual currency studio was penalized for using a VPN to bypass restrictions.
The administrative penalty decision disclosed by lawyer Wu Enxiang shows that a virtual currency studio in Xianning, Hubei Province, used a VPN to illegally access international networks, purchasing a certain virtual currency at a low price and later selling it at a high price, ultimately receiving a warning and a fine of 15,000 yuan, along with the confiscation of illegal gains of 90,000 yuan and the seizure of eight mobile phones and eight computers used in the crime.
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