Why has the market generally adjusted back in the past two days?

The main reason is that the Fed is about to hold an important meeting at 3 a.m. tonight - the Fed will announce the December interest rate decision, and Powell's routine press speech at 3:30 is even more important.

Because of the importance of this rate cut, the market is currently avoiding risks in the short term.

I will briefly summarize the focus of the upcoming meeting for friends who don't have time to watch:

1. There is no suspense that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points again at this meeting.

2. After the 25 basis point rate cut tonight as scheduled, the cumulative rate cut for three consecutive times throughout the year will reach 100 basis points.

3. Why is this rate cut worth paying attention to? Because this rate cut may be the "end of the first stage of the two-stage rate cut cycle."

4. The stability of the US labor market has improved compared to September, and inflation has also risen slightly. In addition, Trump's trade, tax and other reform measures may reshape the outlook for economic growth, employment and inflation in the next few years. Fed officials will begin to think about responding to these changes at this week's meeting. Under this premise, Powell tried to find a more appropriate degree of policy easing, facing doubts about continuing to cut interest rates.

5. Wall Street institutions expect the Fed's interest rate cut cycle "second phase" next year: the Fed's pace of interest rate cuts will be slower and the threshold will be raised. It is difficult to reproduce the uninterrupted "three consecutive cuts" at the end of this year.

6. Important points to watch for tonight's interest rate decision: Will the Fed hint at a pause in interest rate cuts in January?

7. Another focus: How many times will the Fed cut interest rates next year? Wall Street banks have begun to expect that the Fed may cut interest rates one less time next year (compared with the September estimate) - that is, it may only cut interest rates by 75 basis points in total. #比特币冲向11万？