The probability of ETH hitting a new high is only 13%! Confidence in the year-end market has sharply declined.
On December 18, according to Polymarket data, the predicted probability of 'Ethereum will not reach a new all-time high this year' has surged to 87%, while the probability of 'Ethereum will reach ATH' has dropped to only 13%. Market confidence has nearly dissipated.
It is worth mentioning that during the brief wave of market optimism on December 7, the probability of 'ETH will reach ATH' once touched 41%. However, as the market weakened and capital sentiment became more cautious, this figure was halved in just 11 days.
As of now, the total amount of funds participating in this prediction has reached $10.195 million, reflecting a strong interest from a large number of investors in Ethereum's year-end performance.
This data reveals two key pieces of information: first, the market generally expects Ethereum to struggle to break the existing ceiling in the short term; second, the speed of sentiment switching is extremely fast, indicating that capital is more inclined towards short-term speculation.
Whether you are bullish or bearish, this wave of market action reminds us: the difference between a bull and a bear market may only be a triggering event. And for those who want to bet on a year-end turnaround, don't forget to think about a stop-loss strategy in advance; the market never believes in tears!
These days I am preparing to launch a strategic order soon!!!
Comment 168 to get on board!!!
Impermanence brings impermanence brings impermanence brings!!!
Important things are said three times!!!
