Good evening, my friends! Let's first talk about the recent and important interest rate decision in the early morning. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is very high, and it can be said that there is basically no suspense.
Everyone has seen today's small correction, because there is a Fed interest rate meeting in the early morning. It is normal for investors to be risk-averse. The focus of this meeting is no longer a 25 basis point rate cut, but the dot plot and Powell's speech.
Bao's speech is also very important. What signal will he send? If he says that he may suspend interest rate cuts in the future, the market will be affected. If he says that everything depends on the data, then everyone may choose to wait until January to see the inflation and employment data in December before making a judgment.
Cryptocurrency market dynamics: Currently, Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to rise strongly, but the performance of other altcoins is not as impressive.
The Federal Reserve may implement only 2 to 4 rate cuts in 2025. The higher the interest rates in 2025, the greater the probability of a black swan event, and the market will be more concerned about the delay of easing policies, so investors' risk awareness is increasing.
In addition to the interest rate meeting, there is also the question of whether Japan will raise interest rates in December, with results expected on the 19th. Although the probability of a rate hike is indeed low, it is normal to be cautious, and today's two events are likely linked to next week's Christmas.
Overall, the situation is not bad.
In addition, there are the following macro messages
Trump promised to introduce favorable regulatory policies to allow MG to dominate the cryptocurrency field and support the establishment of a strategic national Bitcoin reserve. On the other hand, the news that MicroStrategy is about to join the NASDAQ 100 index has also added positive expectations to the market, opening up space for further profits from Bitcoin investments. However, we must also be aware of the inflation risks triggered by strong economic growth in the U.S. and Trump's broader agenda, as the future direction of policies remains uncertain.
After the leverage cleanup, the altcoin season is about to explode!
Currently, the performance of most markets is still dominated by Bitcoin, and the altcoin season's bull market has not fully erupted. The altcoin market may continue to rotate, and will only fully activate when market sentiment warms up. If you are patient with altcoins, there may be good opportunities ahead.
And it should be noted that nearly 10 days of volatility have passed since the sharp drop on December 9, and most altcoins are currently undergoing a second test, with relatively low trading volume during this test, indicating that selling pressure has weakened. Previously, after Bitcoin peaked locally on November 22, altcoins generally experienced a significant upward trend. Currently, Bitcoin is showing local peak signals again, and it is possible that altcoins will experience another upward trend after completing the second test.
However, we must also be cautious of the potential drawdown risk during the transition period between December and January, and we must pay attention to position management! Risk control is always the top priority. Previously, there were many instances of sharp pullbacks, and I saw some friends getting shaken out. The price remains the same, but the position is gone (mainly the leveraged part). I really don't want to see this situation happen.
Currently, most assets in the market are not priced low, especially those related to Trump. At this time, there are not many assets that can be selected by following Bitcoin's rhythm. If you have to invest, consider mainstream or highly popular assets with good fundamentals.
So let me summarize for everyone what can be considered for purchase.
Four major coins: ETH, DOGE, SOL, BNB
Four major veterans: ADA, LTC, BCH, BSV
Four major leaders: ATOM, DOT, FIL, UNI
Layer 2 Defi: NEAR, OP, ARB, INJ, SSV
For specific prices, everyone can enter the market with 30% at the current price, then buy another 30% if it drops 5 points, and 40% if it drops 10 points, buying in batches. I believe that this position is relatively safe.
With Trump's rise to power, Bitcoin is recognized by the world, and next year will be a true crypto year; what will next year bring - compliance concepts + Trump's new policies + legal victories + market sentiment + expansion of technological applications + large capital involvement. What we need to do is hold onto valuable coins, bravely seek value coins during every drop, and firmly hold onto them without being shaken out. Remember that every drop now is for a better rise in the future, and selecting the right assets is paramount! A recent summary in one sentence: Hold onto value and wait for the bloom.