Over the years, one thing I've often seen in traders, especially those new to the cryptocurrency world (newbies), is a sense of frustration when the market declines. When values drop, they lose hope, doubt themselves, and question everything they've learned. Recently, someone commented on my post, "Altseason is a lie." But is that really true? Or are there deeper underlying factors influencing the market?
Let's analyze this issue through the lens of my over 5 years of trading experience and market observation, as well as from the questions I've received from the community and students.
I am not a random technical analyst making predictions. Experience is the greatest teacher. Some people have scoffed at my previous updates, but those who truly paid attention realized that the outcomes have unfolded as predicted.
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Altseason 2021 Compared to 2024
In the crypto world, you often hear the phrase history repeats itself and it's not just a coincidence. It's the natural flow of market cycles. If you think back to 2021, we saw something really interesting about 34 weeks after the Bitcoin halving, BTC dominance began to decrease and altcoins started to soar. This was the beginning of the altcoin season, the time when altcoins started to outperform Bitcoin.
Now, let's fast forward to 2024. The same thing happens 34 weeks after the Bitcoin halving, BTC dominance starts to decrease. What is happening right now? The exact same pattern. The yellow line is the halving date, the green line is 34 weeks after the halving.
But now the interesting part is if you zoom in on the BTC dominance 1D chart, you'll see that BTC dominance is beginning to rise again after 34 weeks. In fact, it could increase by another 5-7% before we see the actual altcoin season start, similar to what happened in 2021.
This tells me that we may be on the brink of something exciting, possibly an altcoin season. But if that's the case,
Why are we seeing altcoins drop sharply right now?
The real answer: BTC dominance is not the whole story!
When we see altcoins dropping, it's easy to conclude that BTC dominance is the main factor. And while BTC dominance does play a role, there's much more to it. The real cause lies in market manipulation, particularly by whales and market makers. These entities control a large portion of the market and they use tactics that can truly confuse everyday traders. Let me explain simply.
So now you can ask who the Whales and Market Makers are?
Whales: These are individuals or groups that hold a large amount of a specific cryptocurrency. They have enough capital to significantly impact the market when they buy or sell.
Market Makers: These are entities or organizations that provide liquidity to the market. They profit by manipulating price fluctuations and controlling market flow.
Now, when we see altcoins bleeding, it's often because whales and market makers are trying to wipe out the weak hands—traders using excessive leverage or lacking experience. They do this by creating artificial sell-offs that force traders to panic and sell their positions at a loss.
How do whales manipulate the market?
Let's go through each step so you can really understand this process.
1. Manipulating BTC dominance
When BTC dominance starts to rise, altcoins often begin to lose value. But this is when manipulation comes into play: whales and market makers know that many traders are closely watching BTC dominance. When they see BTC dominance start to rise, it causes panic among altcoin traders. They begin to think that the altcoin season is over and start to panic sell their positions.
2. Whales set traps
At this point, whales begin to sell off the market. They sell a large amount of BTC or altcoins, causing prices to drop rapidly. This creates a sense of fear and uncertainty in the market. Traders, especially those with high leverage, get liquidated as their positions are wiped out. Market makers and whales profit from the liquidation fees and falling prices.
3. "Cleanup" phase
After wiping out the weak hands, the Whales and Market Makers now have cheap positions in the market. Then, they can pump the market when selling pressure eases, causing prices to rise. This often happens in a strong bullish phase, which can lead to panic selling by those who have sold their positions, forcing them to buy back at higher prices.
The truth about Altseason
So, let's return to the main question or the follower's comment: Is altseason a lie?
No, not at all. But you might feel like lying if you get stuck in one of these market cycles where whales manipulate the price. Just because altcoins are bleeding doesn't mean the altcoin season has ended. In fact, this bleeding is often a prelude to a major altcoin bull run.
As I have seen in the past, once BTC dominance stabilizes and begins to decline, altcoins tend to lead. We're not far from that moment in 2024, and I believe we are about to enter altcoin season after BTC dominance increases a bit. This is why being patient and sticking to your strategy is so important, even when things seem uncertain.
As usual, the key to success in trading is understanding the market and being patient. Don't let short-term fluctuations or market manipulation shake your confidence. Stick to your strategy, trust the process, and prepare for the upcoming altcoin bull run!
DYOR! #Write2Win #Write&Earn $BTC
