While Bitcoin (BTC) continues to set new ATHs, the current trend in the options market shows increased caution from traders, as they no longer pursue price increases with the same enthusiasm as before.
On Monday, the price of BTC exceeded $107,000, breaking the previous record set on December 5 and raising the total accumulated gain since the US elections to over 50%.
This surge is driven by a statement from President-elect Donald Trump about building a strategic Bitcoin reserve, similar to the US strategic oil reserve. Analysts believe that the upward trend will continue into next year, with expectations for BTC prices ranging from $150,000 to $200,000 by the end of 2025.
However, the developments in the options market reflect a clear cautious sentiment. Data from Deribit shows that traders are more hesitant to bet on the current price rise.
Source: Amberdata
At the time of writing, the 25-delta risk reversal index* for options expiring on Friday is negative, indicating higher costs for put options – contracts that provide insurance against downside risk. Put options expiring on December 27 are trading at slightly higher premiums than call options. Meanwhile, the risk ratio for options expiring at the end of March still favors call options but with a spread of less than 3 volatility points.
This trend is in stark contrast to a few weeks ago, when the market was lively and traders rushed to pursue new ATHs. At that time, the spread for short- and long-term call options exceeded 4 to 5 volatility points. Notably, the short-term risk reversal index often shows a strong preference for call options compared to the long-term risk reversal index.
Recent large trades on Deribit, monitored by Amberdata, also indicate a bearish trend. The most notable trade today is a Short position in a contract expiring on December 27 with a strike price of $108,000, followed by a Long position in a contract with a strike price of $100,000 expiring on December 27 and January 3.
This cautious sentiment partly stems from concerns that on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve (Fed) may signal a reduction in the number of rate hikes for 2025, while announcing a 25 basis point cut as expected. This scenario could lead to a sharp increase in bond yields, a stronger US dollar, and weaken the appeal of risky assets. In this context, professional Bitcoin traders may be preparing for a significant price correction.
Mt. Gox transfers $172 million in Bitcoin to a new wallet
Mt. Gox, the long-bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange, just completed a notable transaction by transferring approximately $172.5 million in Bitcoin to an unidentified wallet, less than 24 hours after setting a new ATH near $108,000.
According to data from Arkham Intelligence, on December 17, Mt. Gox transferred a total of 1,619.6 BTC to two unlabelled addresses. This transaction includes 1,427.9 BTC and 191.7 BTC split into two separate streams.
A portion of the aforementioned 1,427.9 BTC was routed through an intermediary wallet before flowing to an address starting with '1DeY', where the intermediary wallet retained about 108 BTC. This 108 BTC, along with the remaining 191.7 BTC, continued to circulate through various wallets before concentrating at an address starting with '1KLr', which currently holds 300 BTC.
The purpose behind this money transfer move by Mt. Gox remains a big question mark. Since the exchange declared bankruptcy in early 2014, previous Bitcoin movements have been related to payments to creditors.
Source: Arkham Intelligence
The latest trade occurred shortly after a similar move on December 5, when Mt. Gox transferred over 24,000 BTC (worth nearly $2.5 billion at that time) to an unidentified address, just 12 minutes after Bitcoin first surpassed the $100,000 mark.
Data from Arkham indicates that Mt. Gox currently holds approximately 36,085 BTC, equivalent to $3.86 billion, in wallets under their control. Creditors of Mt. Gox may choose to receive payments in Bitcoin if desired.
Notably, although the transfer of Bitcoin from Mt. Gox is often seen as a bearish signal, the market does not seem to be significantly affected. Since Friday, December 13, Bitcoin has maintained above the $100,000 mark and traded steadily around $106,500 today, after hitting a new peak of $107,857 at the end of December 16, according to data from TradingView.
Earlier, in October of this year, the trustee responsible for managing Mt. Gox's Bitcoin decided to extend the payment deadline for creditors by an additional year, to October 31, 2025, citing that many creditors 'have not yet received their payments as the necessary procedures have not been completed.'
*25-delta risk reversal is an indicator in the options market, reflecting the difference between the call and put option prices with a delta sensitivity of approximately 25. Specifically, delta shows the change in the option price when the underlying asset price changes by one unit, and '25-delta' means the sensitivity of the option at a delta level of about 0.25.
https://tapchibitcoin.io/mt-gox-di-chuyen-172-trieu-do-la-btc-nha-dau-tu-than-trong.html
