According to the schedule, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on December 19. According to CME's 'FedWatch' data, the market is almost certain about a 25 basis point (0.25%) rate cut, with a probability of 98.6%. This will be the third rate cut in 2024, and the market has been prepared for it.
However, a 25 basis point rate cut is almost a certainty, with the focus on Powell's speech. Analysts mostly believe that this might be an 'hawkish rate cut', meaning a rate cut while signaling a pause, which would have a huge impact. Analysts from BNP Paribas stated that the Federal Reserve might use this opportunity to signal a pause in rate cuts, reducing expectations for further cuts next year. For the crypto market, this is positive news, and the market will likely take this opportunity for a rally.
What will Bitcoin's next trend be?
①Is Bitcoin going to drop? Is there a possibility of a waterfall?
At the moment, it seems unlikely that there will be signs of a waterfall, i.e., continuous declines. There is still room for increase, with a target likely between 108,000 and 110,000. The exact figure cannot be measured. Therefore, any pullback is a buying opportunity.
②Where is the suitable entry point?
The most recent support zone is between 102,600 and 103,300, where one can look to ambush long positions. For the exact amount, let's discuss in detail.
③Can I short at this position?
Given the current price trend, there is a possibility of high-level fluctuations, so both high shorts and low longs can be executed. However, if the target area hasn't been reached yet, shorting should only be temporary unless your leverage is low enough.
④Will there be a big drop this month?
I don't believe that prices only go up and never down. Moreover, from this moment on, the higher it goes, the greater the probability of a peak. This month, I still insist on a significant pullback, which is what you refer to as a big drop. Of course, it probably won't be this week. At least not in the next few days.
Christmas poses a risk because the U.S. stock market will be closed, and without market makers, BTC's behavior becomes uncertain. If BTC drops, altcoins may also struggle. Thus, the previously mentioned position control and short-term trading strategies are crucial. To maximize profits, one should consider reducing positions around December 20.
Christmas will not affect the overall trend. After New Year's Day, with Trump officially taking office and the new SEC chairman, a new rise is certainly continuing. Without negative data and news, there shouldn't be any issues!
The next six months: The golden time for Bitcoin to swim freely.
Based on the current market trends and macroeconomic analysis, Bitcoin may enter a 'free swimming' phase in the next six months. This means there is still enough space in the market for participation and layout, especially for long-term investments, making this an ideal time window.
During this period, a diversified investment strategy can be employed to gradually build up Bitcoin holdings, taking advantage of market fluctuations to gain more opportunities. Whether through regular investment or increasing positions at suitable times, considerable returns can be obtained in the upcoming market.
Let me share an expectation:
In January, ETH will officially break its all-time high, coinciding with BTC breaking above 110,000, and ETH will gradually become stronger, leading to a surge in altcoins!
The focus of this market cycle is in the first quarter of next year, which may even determine the upper limit of funds in this bull market. Before this, weakness is only superficial; opportunities and risks coexist, and whether you can seize them relies entirely on yourself.