Note: The original video interview is from Milk Road, hosted by Andrew Kamsky, published on December 12!
Andrew Kamsky: Welcome back to the Milk Road studio. It's great to see you!
William Quigley: Yes, I'm glad to see you too.
Andrew Kamsky: You mentioned last time on the show that you predicted Bitcoin would reach $100,000. You specifically pointed out that December 10 is a key date. While I'm not sure why you chose that specific date, it’s clear that you are very good at observing and identifying repeating patterns in trading. So, please share your thoughts on Bitcoin's current situation and trading patterns.
William Quigley: Well, last time we talked, I thought Bitcoin needed to continue the trading patterns of the past, so I expect a similar performance in 2025. Typically, Bitcoin will experience halving in April or May, then drop in August or September, stabilize, and start to recover in the fourth quarter, paving the way for the next year’s bull market. And that’s exactly what happened; we experienced a drop in August and September, and by around November, Bitcoin started to rise significantly and eventually broke through the $100,000 mark, which was later validated. As long as Bitcoin's price fluctuates within the range of $95,000 to $105,000, $110,000, or some relatively stable range, it’s a good sign for me, indicating that Bitcoin is repeating its historical trend. Bitcoin's movements generally influence other cryptocurrencies. So, that’s why we need to pay extra attention to Bitcoin.
Andrew Kamsky: Before we start discussing your prediction about the remaining time of this Bitcoin cycle, I want to talk about a point you mentioned earlier, that you expect Bitcoin might experience a pullback, and if it does, you wouldn't be surprised. Please elaborate on this and explain why you think a pullback might happen and that it might not be a bad thing.
William Quigley: There are several reasons. Even outside of the Bitcoin space, there will always be people who choose to exit and take some profits when they reach their expected return point. This alone can slow down the rise of any globally traded asset. Additionally, many people will try to time the market and follow the 'crowd', becoming part of the 'herd'. I say this not directed at you, but at those who follow trends. Bitcoin took 14 years to reach over $100,000 from its inception. However, it could potentially rise to $200,000 within four to five months. In fact, if Bitcoin is to follow its previous pattern and perform as it should, it needs to do this. Because if we look at Bitcoin's historical patterns, this cycle could end in 2025. So, if Bitcoin is to rise to five times its pre-halving amount (with the pre-halving price around $65,000), then five times that is $325,000. It needs to reach this goal before December 2025. By next summer, which is the midpoint of the cycle, the price should exceed $200,000. Some people think that going from $100,000 to $200,000 from December to March seems unlikely. But from August to November, Bitcoin doubled in less than four months, didn't it? So, historically speaking, it is entirely possible for Bitcoin to double during a bull market. Although saying it now, the idea of reaching $200,000 by March sounds crazy. I'll make another prediction: if Bitcoin hasn't exceeded $200,000 by April, then we need to pay attention.
Andrew Kamsky: You mentioned earlier that this cycle might end in 2025, or that 2025 might see a peak. At what price do you think Bitcoin will peak? When will it peak?
William Quigley: $325,000? Before the end of 2025? It might peak in March, then drop, and then rebound significantly before the end of the cycle, just like in 2021. So, it could do that, and I wouldn't be surprised. I even hope it can exceed $325,000. I looked at its increases in previous cycles and the increases after halving, right? As I mentioned before, the first was 50 times, the second was 20 times, and the third was 10 times. So, 4 to 6 times might be a consistent pattern if it strictly follows this trend. Another driving factor is that Bitcoin's volatility is significant, and holding equivalents is easier. Bitcoin is a very new globally traded asset, unlike traditional assets like gold or copper. It’s a new asset, which means it's risky and its performance is hard to predict. If we had fifty years of data, we might feel more confident. But Bitcoin's history is less than fifteen years. So, if you're going to hold such an asset, it has to provide extraordinary returns; otherwise, why invest in it? You wouldn't want to take on massive downside risk while only gaining tiny upside potential, right? That's not a good combination. That's why Bitcoin is almost always eye-catching. Of course, some people think this is just wishful thinking, but there are also media and smart individuals who believe that if prices reach $500,000, $750,000, or $1,000,000 in this cycle, it would be out of the ordinary. That’s also why I don’t think such scenarios will occur. But similarly, we don’t have that much historical data as a reference, only less than 15 years of data. So, it’s more likely to do something unexpected. But when I see its current performance, I feel very optimistic. After all, we are already at the end of 2024.
For the full interview, please see the video below:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hpkhj4Yreb8
*Friendly reminder: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice!
