VanEck's top ten crypto predictions for 2025.
Please note that VanEck may hold the digital assets mentioned below.
Before we discuss our outlook for 2025, let's first review the performance of our predictions for 2024. Of the 15 predictions made at the end of 2023, our self-assessment score is 8.5/15. While a 56.6% accuracy rate is not perfect, it is sufficient for us to continue to 'stay in the game.' With Bitcoin (BTC) breaking $100,000 and Ethereum (ETH) surpassing $4,000, 2024 will still be a year to remember in the history of cryptocurrencies, even if some predictions did not fully hit the mark.
2024 forecast review.
In our 2024 predictions, we successfully identified multiple key trends, including:
The launch of Bitcoin spot ETPs.
The Bitcoin halving will be smoothly completed.
Ethereum continues to rank second, just behind Bitcoin.
Bitcoin will reach an all-time high in the fourth quarter of 2024.
L2 will dominate Ethereum activity (but L2 TVL still remains below Ethereum).
The market cap of stablecoins will reach an all-time high.
The trading volume of decentralized exchanges will reach new records.
Solana (SOL) will outperform Ethereum (ETH).
DePIN network adoption will increase.
While some predictions have not fully materialized, the overall trend still validates our analytical direction.
Top 10 cryptocurrency predictions for 2025.
The crypto bull market will reach a mid-term high in the first quarter and set a new peak by the end of the year.
The U.S. will further embrace Bitcoin through strategic reserves and policy support.
The total value of tokenized securities will surpass $50 billion.
The daily settlement volume of stablecoins will reach $300 billion.
On-chain activities of AI entities will exceed 1 million.
The total value locked (TVL) in Bitcoin's second layer network will reach 100,000 BTC.
Ethereum's Blob space revenue will reach $1 billion.
DeFi trading volume will set a new high of $4 trillion, with total value locked (TVL) reaching $200 billion.
The NFT market will revive, with annual trading volume reaching $30 billion.
The performance of decentralized application (DApp) tokens will gradually catch up with mainstream public chain tokens.
Next, we will delve into the context and logic behind some of these key predictions.
1. The crypto bull market will reach a mid-term peak in the first quarter and set a new high in the fourth quarter.
We believe the cryptocurrency bull market in 2025 will continue to develop and reach its first peak in the first quarter. At the peak of this cycle, we expect the price of Bitcoin (BTC) to reach around $180,000, while Ethereum (ETH) will break $6,000. Other notable projects like Solana (SOL) and Sui (SUI) may exceed $500 and $10 respectively.
After the first peak, we expect BTC to pull back 30%, while altcoins may drop even more, reaching 60%, reflecting market consolidation over the summer. However, a recovery may occur in the autumn, with major tokens regaining momentum and breaking historical highs again before the end of the year. To determine the timing of the market approaching its peak, we will focus on the following key signals:
Persistent high funding rates: When traders borrow to bet on rising BTC prices, they are willing to pay funding rates exceeding 10% for three months or longer, indicating speculative overheating.
Excess unrealized profits: If a large proportion of investors holding BTC are in a state of significant paper gains (with a profit-to-cost ratio reaching 70% or higher), it suggests that the market is in a euphoric state.
Overvaluation of market cap relative to realized value: When the MVRV (market cap to realized value ratio) score exceeds 5, it indicates that the BTC price is far above the average purchase price, typically suggesting that the market is overheated.
Decline in Bitcoin dominance: If Bitcoin's share of the total crypto market falls below 40%, it indicates that speculative funds are shifting to higher-risk altcoins, a typical behavior in the later stages of a cycle.
Mainstream speculation: When a large number of friends from non-crypto domains start inquiring about dubious projects, it is usually a reliable signal that the market is near its peak.
These indicators have historically been reliable signals of market euphoria and will guide our outlook for the market cycle in 2025.
2. The U.S. will further embrace Bitcoin through strategic reserves and cryptocurrency adoption.
Donald Trump's election has injected significant momentum into the crypto market, as his administration appointed multiple leaders who support cryptocurrencies to key positions, including Vice President JD Vance, National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, Secretary of the Treasury Mary Bessent, Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Paul Atkins, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) Chair Jelena McWilliams, and Secretary of Health and Human Services RFK Jr.
These appointments not only mark the end of anti-crypto policies (such as the systematic de-banking of crypto companies) but also signal the beginning of a policy framework that positions Bitcoin as a strategic asset.
Crypto ETPs: Physical creation, staking, and new spot approvals.
The new SEC leadership (or possibly the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, CFTC) will approve multiple new spot crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) in the U.S., including VanEck's Solana product.
The functionality of Ethereum ETPs will expand to include staking, further enhancing their utility for holders, while both Ethereum and Bitcoin ETPs will support physical creation/redemption.
The repeal of SEC rule SAB 121 (whether through the SEC or Congress) will pave the way for banks and brokerages to custody spot cryptocurrencies, further integrating digital assets into traditional financial infrastructure.
Sovereign Bitcoin adoption: Federal, state, and mining expansions.
We predict that by 2025, the U.S. federal government or at least one state (possibly Pennsylvania, Florida, or Texas) will establish Bitcoin reserves.
From a federal perspective, this is more likely to be achieved through an executive order utilizing the Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF), although bipartisan legislation remains uncertain.
At the same time, state governments may act independently to view Bitcoin as a hedge against fiscal uncertainty or a means to attract crypto investment and innovation.
In Bitcoin mining, the number of countries using government resources for mining is expected to reach double digits (currently seven), thanks to the increasing adoption of cryptocurrencies by BRICS nations.
This trend is driven by Russia's statement to plan to use cryptocurrencies for settling international trade, further highlighting Bitcoin's global influence.
We anticipate that this supportive stance towards Bitcoin will ripple through the broader U.S. crypto ecosystem. With regulatory clarity and incentives attracting talent and companies back, the share of global crypto developers in the U.S. will rise from 19% to 25%.
At the same time, Bitcoin mining activity in the U.S. will thrive, with the U.S. share of global mining power increasing from 28% in 2024 to 35% by the end of 2025, thanks to cheap energy and potential tax incentives. These trends will collectively solidify the U.S.'s leadership in the global Bitcoin economy.
The U.S. share of Bitcoin mining power held by publicly traded companies will reach 35%.
Corporate Bitcoin holdings are expected to grow by 43%.
In terms of corporate adoption, we expect companies to continue accumulating Bitcoin from retail investors.
Currently, 68 publicly traded companies hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets, and we expect this number to reach 100 by 2025.
Notably, we boldly predict that the total amount of Bitcoin held by private and public companies (currently 765,000 BTC) will exceed the 1.1 million BTC held by Satoshi Nakamoto next year. This indicates a significant growth of 43% in corporate Bitcoin holdings over the next year.
Gold and Bitcoin ownership: Growth space for businesses and governments.
3. The value of tokenized securities exceeds $50 billion.
On-chain securities will grow by 61% in 2024.
On-chain securities grew by 61% in 2024.
The infrastructure of cryptocurrencies promises to improve the financial system by enhancing efficiency, decentralization, and greater transparency.
We believe that 2025 will be a year of explosive growth for tokenized securities. Currently, there are approximately $12 billion worth of tokenized securities on the blockchain, with the majority ($9.5 billion) being tokenized private credit securities on Figure's semi-permissioned blockchain, Provenance.
In the future, we see tremendous potential for the launch of tokenized securities on public chains. We believe investors have many motivations driving the complete issuance of tokenized stocks or debt securities on-chain.
We predict that entities like DTCC will support the seamless transition of tokenized assets between public blockchains and private closed infrastructures within the next year. This dynamic will facilitate the establishment of AML/KYC (anti-money laundering/know your customer) standards for on-chain investors.
As a bold prediction, we expect Coinbase to take unprecedented steps to tokenize its COIN stock and deploy it on its BASE blockchain.
4. The daily settlement volume of stablecoins will reach $300 billion.
Monthly stablecoin transfers (in USD) grew by 180% year-on-year in 2024.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Artemis XYZ, data as of December 6, 2024.
Stablecoins will leap from a niche role in cryptocurrency trading to a core component of global commerce.
By the end of 2025, we expect the daily settlement volume of stablecoins to reach $300 billion, equivalent to 5% of the current DTCC trading volume, whereas the daily settlement volume in November 2024 was approximately $100 billion. With the adoption of major tech companies (like Apple and Google) and payment networks (Visa and Mastercard), stablecoins will redefine payment economics.
In addition to trading purposes, the remittance market will experience explosive growth. For example, stablecoin transfers between the U.S. and Mexico could grow from $80 million per month to $400 million, a fivefold increase.
The reason lies in its speed, cost savings, and the increasing number of people viewing stablecoins as practical tools rather than experimental technology. Although blockchain adoption is still under discussion, stablecoins are effectively the 'Trojan horse' of blockchain technology.
5. On-chain activities of AI entities will exceed 1 million.
AI intelligent entities will achieve total revenue of $8.7 million within five weeks.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Dune @jdhpyer, data as of December 6, 2024.
We believe that AI intelligent entities (AI Agents) are one of the most compelling trends and will gain significant traction in 2025. AI intelligent entities are specialized AI robots that can help users achieve goals such as 'maximizing returns' or 'increasing engagement on X/Twitter.'
These intelligent entities optimize outcomes by autonomously adjusting strategies. AI intelligent entities are typically trained on a specific domain with input data. Currently, protocols like Virtuals provide tools for anyone to create on-chain AI intelligent entities.
Virtuals allow non-technical individuals to access decentralized AI contributors (such as fine-tuning experts, dataset providers, and model developers), enabling ordinary users to create their own intelligent entities. This model will lead to a surge of intelligent entities, whose creators can rent them out to generate income.
Currently, the construction of intelligent entities is mainly focused on the DeFi space, but we believe AI intelligent entities will extend beyond financial activities. For example, these entities can be used as influencers on social media, virtual players in games, and interactive assistants or partners in consumer applications.
Intelligent entities like Bixby and Terminal of Truths have become important X/Twitter influencers, with 92,000 and 197,000 followers respectively. Therefore, we anticipate the birth of over 1 million new intelligent entities in 2025.
6. The total value locked (TVL) in Bitcoin's second layer network (L2) will reach 100,000 BTC.
The TVL of Bitcoin L2 will reach 30,000 BTC, a 600% year-on-year increase in 2024.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The securities mentioned in the text do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell. Defillama, data as of December 6, 2024.
We are closely monitoring the rise of Bitcoin's second layer (L2) blockchains, which have tremendous potential to transform the Bitcoin ecosystem.
By expanding Bitcoin's capabilities, these L2 solutions can achieve lower latency and higher transaction throughput, addressing the limitations of the Bitcoin main chain. In addition, Bitcoin L2 has enhanced Bitcoin's capabilities by introducing smart contract functionality, supporting the decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem built around Bitcoin.
Currently, Bitcoin can be transferred to smart contract platforms through bridging or wrapping BTC methods, but these methods rely on third-party systems, which are vulnerable to hacking and security breaches.
Bitcoin L2 solutions are designed to address these risks through a framework that integrates directly with the Bitcoin main chain, thereby reducing dependence on centralized intermediaries. Although liquidity constraints and adoption barriers still exist, Bitcoin L2 is expected to enhance security and decentralization, providing BTC holders with greater confidence to participate more actively in the decentralized ecosystem.
As shown, Bitcoin L2 solutions experienced explosive growth in 2024, with total value locked (TVL) exceeding 30,000 BTC, a year-on-year increase of 600%, equivalent to approximately $3 billion.
Currently, there are over 75 Bitcoin L2 projects in development, but only a few are likely to achieve significant adoption in the long term.
This rapid growth reflects a strong demand from BTC holders for yield generation and broader asset utility. As chain abstraction technology and Bitcoin L2 gradually mature into products available to end users, Bitcoin will become an important component of DeFi.
For example, platforms like Ika on Sui or Infinex using chain abstraction technology on Near demonstrate how innovative multi-chain solutions enhance interoperability between Bitcoin and other ecosystems.
By supporting secure and efficient on-chain lending, borrowing, and other permissionless DeFi solutions, Bitcoin L2 and abstraction technologies will transform Bitcoin from a passive store of value into an active participant in the decentralized ecosystem.
As the scale of adoption increases, these technologies will unleash significant potential for on-chain liquidity, cross-chain innovation, and a more integrated financial future.
7. Ethereum's Blob space revenue will reach $1 billion.
The daily generation of Ethereum's Blob space.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Dune @hildobby, data as of December 6, 2024.
The Ethereum community is actively discussing whether its Layer-2 (L2) networks can bring sufficient value to the Ethereum mainnet through Blob space.
Blob space is a key component of Ethereum's scaling roadmap, serving as a specialized data layer where L2 can submit compressed versions of their transaction history to Ethereum and pay ETH fees per Blob.
Although this framework supports Ethereum's scalability, the value that L2 currently pays to the mainnet is relatively low, with a gross margin of about 90%. This raises concerns that Ethereum's economic value may be excessively transferred to L2, leading to a decline in the utilization of the mainnet.
Although recent growth in Blob space has slowed, we anticipate a significant increase in usage by 2025, primarily driven by the following three factors:
Explosive adoption of L2: Ethereum L2 transaction volume is growing at an annualized rate of over 300%, with users migrating to low-cost, high-throughput environments for DeFi, gaming, and social applications. As more consumer-facing dApps emerge on L2, more transactions will flow back to Ethereum for final settlement, significantly increasing demand for Blob space.
Optimization of rollup technology: Advances in rollup technology (such as improved data compression and reduced costs for submitting data to Blob space) will encourage L2 to store more transaction data on Ethereum, unlocking higher throughput without sacrificing decentralization.
Introduction of high-fee use cases: Enterprise applications, zk-rollup-based financial solutions, and the rise of tokenized real-world assets will drive high-value transactions that prioritize security and immutability, hence willing to pay for Blob space fees.
By the end of 2025, we expect Blob space fees to exceed $1 billion, whereas they are currently almost negligible.
This growth will solidify Ethereum's role as the ultimate settlement layer for decentralized applications while enhancing its ability to capture value from the rapidly expanding L2 ecosystem. Blob space will not only expand the network but also become an important source of revenue for Ethereum, balancing the economic relationship between the mainnet and L2.
8. DeFi sets historical highs: DEX trading volume reaches $4 trillion, TVL reaches $200 billion.
Total value locked (TVL) in DeFi.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Defillama, data as of December 6, 2024.
Despite decentralized exchanges (DEX) achieving new highs in both absolute trading volume and relative share compared to centralized exchanges (CEX), the total value locked (TVL) in decentralized finance (DeFi) remains 24% lower than its historical peak.
We expect DEX trading volume to exceed $4 trillion in 2025, accounting for 20% of CEX spot trading volume, driven by the popularity of AI-related tokens and the emergence of new consumer-facing dApps.
Moreover, the influx of tokenized securities and high-value assets will act as a catalyst for DeFi growth, bringing new liquidity and broader use cases to the ecosystem. Therefore, we expect the total value locked (TVL) in DeFi to rebound to over $200 billion by the end of the year.
This growth not only reflects the revival of decentralized finance but also marks its enhanced position in the global financial system. By introducing more user-friendly dApps and innovative financial tools, DeFi will attract new capital inflows, solidifying its position as an alternative to traditional finance.
9. NFT market revival: Trading volume will reach $30 billion.
NFT trading volume will decline in 2024; we anticipate a rebound in 2025.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The securities mentioned in the text do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell. Data as of December 6, 2024.
The bear market of 2022-2023 severely impacted the NFT space, with trading volume dropping 39% since 2023 and plummeting 84% compared to 2022.
Although the prices of fungible tokens began to recover in 2024, most NFTs continued to underperform until November, when a turning point was reached, following a period of weak prices and low activity. Despite these challenges, some projects with strong community ties have risen against the trend by going beyond speculative value.
For example, Pudgy Penguins successfully transformed into a consumer brand through collectible toys, while Miladys gained cultural influence in the realm of internet satire. Similarly, the Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) continues to evolve as a dominant cultural force, attracting widespread attention from brands, celebrities, and mainstream media.
With the rebound of crypto wealth, we expect new affluent users to diversify their investments into NFTs, not just as speculative investments, but also including assets with enduring cultural and historical significance.
Mature collections like CryptoPunks and Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) will benefit from this transition due to their strong cultural influence and relevance. Although BAYC and CryptoPunks' trading volumes remain 90% and 66% lower than historical peaks (in ETH), prices for other projects like Pudgy Penguins and Miladys have already surpassed previous highs.
Ethereum continues to dominate the NFT space, hosting the majority of important collections. In 2024, Ethereum accounted for 71% of NFT trading volume, and we expect this ratio to rise to 85% in 2025.
This dominance is also reflected in market cap rankings, with NFTs on the Ethereum chain occupying all positions in the top 10 and 16 positions in the top 20, highlighting Ethereum's central role in the NFT ecosystem.
Although NFT trading volume may not return to the euphoric peaks of previous cycles, we believe an annual trading volume of $30 billion is feasible, approximately 55% of the 2021 peak. The market is transitioning from speculative hype to sustainability and cultural relevance.
10. dApp tokens will narrow the performance gap with L1 tokens.
In 2024, Layer 1 tokens will outperform major dApp tokens by twofold.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The MVSCLE index tracks smart contract platforms, while the MVIALE index tracks infrastructure application tokens. Market Vectors, data as of December 8, 2024.
A continuing theme of the 2024 bull market is the significant outperformance of Layer-1 (L1) blockchain tokens relative to decentralized application (dApp) tokens. For example, the MVSCLE index tracking smart contract platforms has risen 80% year-to-date, while the MVIALE index for application tokens has only increased 35% during the same period.
However, we expect this dynamic to change later in 2024, as a wave of new dApps will bring innovative and practical products that create value for their associated tokens.
Among key theme trends, we believe artificial intelligence (AI) is a prominent category in dApp innovation. In addition, decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN) projects also have enormous potential to attract investor and user interest, thus facilitating a broader performance rebalancing between L1 tokens and dApp tokens.
This shift underscores the importance of practicality and product-market fit in determining the success of application tokens within the evolving cryptocurrency landscape.
This article is collaboratively reproduced from: Deep Tide.
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