Morning Thoughts on December 17:

Bitcoin has been on a strong upward trend recently, continuing to surge. During the day yesterday, it broke through historical highs consecutively, and after a brief adjustment during the European session, it climbed vigorously again at the opening of the U.S. stock market, constantly setting new highs. This round of Bitcoin price skyrocketing is mainly attributed to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and key factors such as Trump's imminent presidency. The market's positive reaction to these events has led to a sustained increase in optimistic sentiment in the Bitcoin space. Especially with Trump's promise to shape the U.S. into a Bitcoin superpower and vigorously promote the construction of a friendly regulatory environment for digital assets, breaking the restrictions imposed during the Biden administration, this series of policy directions is expected to greatly stimulate Bitcoin demand, thus strongly pushing the price upward.

In the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands are showing an opening state. It is worth noting that the lower band has not risen but continues to extend downward, and is about to coincide with the MA30 moving average. Based on this technical characteristic, this point can serve as a critical support level in the short term, and from a bearish trend perspective, a larger target level can also be estimated here. Looking at the MACD indicator, it is currently below the 0 axis, and the histogram is gradually reducing in trading volume, while the fast and slow lines are in a dynamic process of convergence. This indicates that the market's bullish and bearish forces are gradually shifting. We need to patiently wait for the full release of the bullish market, and then observe whether it can reverse the trend. In the current market pattern, it is unlikely that the situation will stretch unrestrainedly in one direction. As Tan Sen has always emphasized, in today's high price range, a wise strategy is to continually attempt to position bearish trades rather than blindly chasing highs. Here, I also hope that all investors can maintain enough rationality, approach market changes with caution, and make investment decisions based on sound technical analysis and market judgment to avoid falling into high-risk trading situations due to impulsiveness.

Short Bitcoin at 106500-107000, targeting 103000-103800

Short Ethereum at 4000-4020, targeting 3880-3900

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