Article reprinted from: Odaily Planet Daily

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Nan Zhi (@Assassin_Malvo)

Recently launched MOVE and ME have shown everyone the enthusiasm of the crowd under a bull market and the ferocity of new coins. Looking back, for example, the new coin OL on OKX left a deep impression, as it surged high at the opening, briefly retraced, and then continued to rise in a 'bulldozer' manner.

So, is the strategy for new coins under a bull market no longer the same, and is it unnecessary to sell early like before? Odaily will attempt to answer this question by reviewing the recent launches of new coins on several exchanges in this article.

Basic situation description

This article selected new coins from Binance, OKX, Bybit, and the entire network launch, limited to the past two months.

  • The entire network launches include MOVE and ME;

  • Binance includes SCR, USUAL (pre-market);

  • OKX includes MAJOR, MORPHO, MEMEFI, OL, and X (in fact, many are launched together but do not include Binance, etc.);

  • Bybit chose MOZ (Lumoz) and XION.

In terms of time, the closing prices of the above tokens at 5 minutes, 1 hour, 24 hours, 7 days, and the current price (as of December 16, 3 PM Beijing time) were counted.

Then compare the rise and fall of each token, such as the closing price in 1 hour relative to the closing price in 5 minutes, to judge whether it is 'the peak at the opening'.

Does the peak still exist at the opening?

The rise and fall data of each token is shown in the figure below. Among them, the closing price in 1 hour has an average drop of 14% relative to the closing price in 5 minutes, while the closing price in 24 hours has an average drop of 7%.

It can be seen that in the short term, the opening 5 minutes is still the high point, and if the token can be obtained within that time frame, it is still recommended to sell.

There are eight tokens that have been online for 7 days, and these tokens have an average drop of 8.7% in closing price over 7 days relative to the closing price in 5 minutes, indicating that the mid-term situation remains unchanged, and the opening is still a high point.

Will the situation change if we extend the time frame?

The average increase of 11 tokens' current price relative to the closing price in 5 minutes reached 25%, but excluding OL, it turned into an average drop of 21%, with losses further expanding.

The opening is still the peak

From the above, for most tokens, the opening price is still likely to be the highest point. A bull market may bring higher opening prices rather than long-term increases. Moreover, one or two months will not eliminate the overly high prices caused by the opening's excessive enthusiasm; according to statistical patterns, it is still recommended to sell if the token can be obtained within 5 minutes.

Binance new coin VANA price estimate

Based on the past 21 periods of Binance Launchpool data, we estimate the price of VANA to be 15.9 USDT, with a corresponding FDV of 1.911 billion USD and an initial circulating market value of 479 million USD.

Its algorithm is: the average annualized return over the past 21 periods is 96%. Assuming this period is also 96%; based on the average amount of BNB invested in the past 21 periods and the BNB price of 726 USDT, we can determine that to achieve the same annualized return, the price of VANA needs to reach:

16973725 × 726 ÷ 4080000 × 2 ÷ 365 × 96% = 15.93