According to ChainCatcher news, Bitfinex Alpha's latest report states that since the bear market low of $15,487 in November 2022, Bitcoin has surged over 573%, and its price has increased by 130% so far this year. The current bull market reflects strong institutional demand, primarily driven by ETF and spot accumulation.
Historical data suggests that we are in the mid-cycle, with the market likely peaking around the third to fourth quarter of 2025, approximately 450 days after the halving in April 2024. Indicators such as MVRV, NUPL, and bull-bear market cycle indicators suggest that we are still in a bull market phase but have not yet reached the peak. The Pi cycle top and the 4-year moving average model predict a potential cycle top between $145,000 and $189,000.
From a historical perspective, diminishing returns are easing the explosive growth of BTC that we observed in previous cycles.