The rhythm of the bull market can indeed be summarized in these several stages, a pattern that has been repeatedly verified in multiple cycles of the crypto market. Below is a detailed analysis and strategy recommendations for each stage:
1. BTC dominance rises: The king returns.
Characteristics:
• Bitcoin dominance (BTC Dominance) continues to rise, funds concentrate on Bitcoin, and market confidence returns.
• Altcoins are being “sucked dry”, showing relatively weaker performance, with most coins' trading pairs against BTC weakening.
• Bitcoin price continues to break key resistance levels, attracting institutional funds and OTC buying.
Strategy:
• With BTC as the core: In this stage, focus on positioning Bitcoin primarily, with fewer opportunities in altcoins.
• Control emotions: Avoid chasing high prices in altcoins and patiently wait for opportunities in the altcoin market.
• Observe data: Focus on the BTC Dominance indicator; once it reaches a phase high (like 70%), it may signal the start of the next phase.
2. ETH surges: Hot sectors rise together.
Characteristics:
• ETH takes over the rise, becoming the new core of the market, while driving up hot sectors such as L2 (like Arbitrum, Optimism), chain games, the metaverse, and public chain projects (like Solana, Aptos).
• Funds are flowing from BTC to quality altcoins, and the speed of hot sector switching is accelerating.
• Market sentiment becomes more active, but mainstream coins remain the main battleground for funds.
Strategy:
• Bet on hot sectors: Preferentially select leading coins in mainstream sectors and avoid diversified investments.
• For example: L2 can focus on $ARB and $OP, chain games can look at $MANA and $SAND, and new public chains can pay attention to $APT and $SUI.
• Pay attention to ETH trends: The strength of ETH is often a barometer for the hot trend of sectors; once ETH peaks, the market may enter the end of the rotation.
• Beware of hot sector switching: Avoid chasing high prices, lay out at lows, and adjust positions according to market heat.
3. Total market climax: The frenzy of MEME and shit coins.
Characteristics:
• All coins rise, “wealth myths” emerge one after another, MEME coins and shit coins (low market cap coins) see astonishing gains.
• The market enters a “FOMO” (fear of missing out) sentiment where everyone talks about crypto assets.
• Highly speculative projects emerge one after another, with funds flooding into low-quality coins.
• Price increases no longer follow logic; waking up after a sleep can result in assets doubling or more.
Strategy:
• Reduce positions in mainstream coins: Gradually take profits from mainstream coins and focus on short-term explosive hot sectors.
• Participate in MEME coins with small positions: This stage allows for moderate participation in MEME coins (like $DOGE, $PEPE, etc.), but strictly control positions and avoid heavy chasing of high prices.
• Stay calm: Avoid being swept away by market emotions, set profit-taking points, and avoid missing good opportunities due to greed.
4. Total market collapse: The harsh reality of the shift from bull to bear.
Characteristics:
• Mainstream coins retract first, followed by a sharp decline in altcoins, leading to a wave of low market cap coins going to zero.
• Market liquidity sharply declines, panic spreads, and funds rapidly withdraw.
• A large number of new investors and high-leverage investors face liquidation, and wealth “returns” much faster than it grows.
Strategy:
• Clear out altcoins in advance: Exit high-risk assets during the market frenzy phase.
• Gradually reduce leverage and risk exposure: Concentrate funds on mainstream coins with strong resilience or convert to stablecoins.
• Wait for bear market layout opportunities: After a collapse, the real value investment opportunities emerge, focusing on quality assets at low points.
Summary
The rhythm of the bull market is clear, with distinct characteristics and response strategies for each stage. The key is to grasp the market rhythm and adjust positions and strategies at different stages:
1. BTC Stage: Concentrate on Bitcoin and monitor changes in dominance.
2. ETH stage: Focus on leading hot sectors and be cautious about chasing high prices.
3. MEME frenzy: Seize short-term opportunities and be ready to exit at any time.
4. Beginning of the bear market: Rapidly reduce positions in high-risk assets and lock in profits.
Correctly understanding the stages of the bull market helps avoid emotional trading while seizing more investment opportunities.