Why is he selling BTC and is his market prediction unreliable?
This guy sold almost all of his BTC today for $103,000. He said he started holding BTC around $25,000 and plans to buy back when the price drops below $40,000. He also has some expectations for the market's future, but is his approach and prediction really reliable? We have to raise a question mark.
His crypto experience and current decision
He said he has been struggling in the crypto space, making a lot of mistakes since FTX collapsed. Now, he has sold all his BTC and plans to re-enter when the price drops to between $30,000 and $40,000, claiming it's a decision based on market research.
What are the flaws in his reasoning?
Only looking at risk and return, ignoring the bigger picture
He thinks many people are wrong to hold onto BTC tightly; he prefers to trade based on cycles and risk-return plans. Currently, the risk-return ratio of BTC is about 15-20%, which he finds unappealing because to gain an extra 15%, one might have to take on 300% risk. But he hasn't considered that the crypto market is unpredictable; besides the risk-return ratio, many factors can influence the price, like major companies starting to use BTC for payments, which could drive BTC prices up significantly.
Focusing too much on past bull market patterns
He said the price of BTC rose from $31,000 to $73,000 before the halving, reaching a new high unlike previous cycles. He believes many retail investors mistakenly think the bull market will start after the halving, but in fact, it's already a bull market. However, he doesn't understand that the market is changing; not following the usual path once doesn’t mean a new trend has formed. New technologies or policies could lead the market back to old ways or create new patterns.
Historical cycles are not infallible
He relies on historical cycles to predict that BTC will peak between November and December 2024, with the bull market ending in September 2025. He cited previous examples of bull and bear markets, but the crypto market is very different now. The entry of new institutional investors, the emergence of new technologies, or changes in global economic policies could all render his predictions inaccurate.
For the next layout direction, I will guide everyone to aim for the lucrative opportunities in altcoins, especially those with great potential, with an expected return of over 10 times being quite feasible. If you want to make big money in the bull market, like + comment, and I will take you through the entire bull market layout!
