Source: VanEck
Authors: Matthew Sigel, Patrick Bush
Compiled by: Bitpush News
Note: VanEck may hold the following digital assets.
Before starting our predictions for 2025, let us take some time to review our predictions for 2024. In these predictions, we achieved 8.5 accurate predictions, with an accuracy rate of 56.6%. Though not perfect, considering Bitcoin broke $100,000 and Ethereum broke $4,000, 2024 was still a year to remember, even if some predictions were inaccurate.
Review of cryptocurrency predictions for 2024
Spot BTC ETP makes its debut - (1 point)
Bitcoin halving progresses smoothly - (1 point)
Bitcoin hits an all-time high in Q4 2024 - (1 point)
Ethereum remains in second place after Bitcoin - (1 point)
L2 dominates Ethereum activity (but L2 TVL remains below Ethereum) - (0.5 point)
Stablecoin market cap reaches an all-time high - (1 point)
Decentralized exchange spot trading volume hits record share - (1 point)
SOL outperforms ETH - (1 point)
DePIN network adoption continues to grow - (1 point)
Now, let's get to the point: Our cryptocurrency predictions for 2025.
Top 10 cryptocurrency predictions for 2025
The cryptocurrency bull market peaks mid-quarter and hits new highs in Q4
The U.S. embraces Bitcoin through strategic reserves and increased cryptocurrency adoption
The value of tokenized securities exceeds $50 billion
Stablecoin daily settlement volume reaches $300 billion
Onchain activities of AI agents exceed 1 million agents
The total locked value (TVL) of Bitcoin's second layer reaches 100,000 BTC
Ethereum blob space generates $1 billion in fees
DeFi hits an all-time high, with DEX trading volume reaching $4 trillion and TVL reaching $200 billion
NFT market recovery, with trading volume reaching $30 billion
The performance gap between DApp tokens and L1 tokens narrows
1. The cryptocurrency bull market peaks mid-quarter and hits new highs in Q4
We believe the cryptocurrency bull market will continue into 2025, peaking in the first quarter. At the peak of the cycle, we predict Bitcoin (BTC) will be valued at around $180,000, while Ethereum (ETH) will trade above $6,000. Other well-known projects like Solana (SOL) and Sui (SUI) may exceed $500 and $10 respectively.
After the first peak, we expect BTC to experience a 30% pullback, with altcoins facing declines of up to 60% during the summer market consolidation. However, a recovery may occur in the fall, with major tokens regaining momentum and recovering previous historical highs before the year ends. To gauge when the market is approaching its peak, we are monitoring the following key signals:
Persistently high financing rates: When traders borrow funds to bet on BTC price increases, they are willing to pay financing rates exceeding 10% for three months or longer, indicating excessive speculation.
BTC Perps financing rates exceeding 10% for several months will be bearish factors
Source: Glass Node as of December 8, 2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities mentioned in this article.
Excess unrealized profits: If the ratio of BTC holders with substantial book profits (profit-to-cost ratio of 70% or higher) stabilizes, it indicates market optimism.
Relative to realized value, market cap is overvalued: When the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) score exceeds 5, it indicates that BTC prices are significantly above the average purchase price, typically signaling overheating.
Bitcoin's dominance declines: If Bitcoin's share of the entire cryptocurrency market falls below 40%, it indicates speculation shifting towards riskier altcoins, a typical late-cycle behavior.
Mainstream speculation: A surge of inquiries from friends unfamiliar with cryptocurrency about dubious projects is a reliable signal of nearing peak speculative frenzy.
Historically, these indicators have been reliable signals of market prosperity and will guide our outlook as we navigate the expected market cycle of 2025.
For example: A 'Top Signal' text from a friend I met five years ago.
2. The U.S. embraces Bitcoin through strategic reserves and increased cryptocurrency adoption
Donald Trump's election has injected tremendous momentum into the cryptocurrency market, with his administration appointing crypto-friendly leaders to key positions, including Vice President J.D. Vance, National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins, FDIC Chair Jelena McWilliams, and HHS Secretary RFK Jr. These appointments signify not only the end of anti-crypto policies, such as systematically targeting the banking of crypto companies and their founders, but also the beginning of a policy framework positioning Bitcoin as a strategic asset.
Cryptocurrency ETPs: Physical creation, staking, and new spot approvals
The new SEC leadership (or possibly the CFTC) will approve multiple new spot cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (ETPs) in the U.S., including VanEck's Solana product. Ethereum ETP functionality expands to include staking, further enhancing its utility for holders, while both Ethereum and Bitcoin ETPs support physical creation/redemption. Whether through the SEC or Congress repealing SEC rule SAB 121, it will pave the way for banks and brokers to custody spot cryptocurrencies, further integrating digital assets into traditional financial infrastructure.
Sovereign Bitcoin adoption: federal, state, and mining expansion
We predict that by 2025, the federal government or at least one U.S. state (possibly Pennsylvania, Florida, or Texas) will establish Bitcoin reserves. From the federal perspective, this is more likely through an executive order utilizing the Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF), although bipartisan legislation remains an unknown. Meanwhile, state governments may act independently, viewing Bitcoin as a tool to hedge against fiscal uncertainty or to attract crypto investments and innovation.
In Bitcoin mining, as adoption rates in BRICS countries rise, the number of countries mining Bitcoin using government resources is expected to reach double digits (currently at seven). Russia has expressed intentions to settle international trade using cryptocurrency, driving this trend and highlighting Bitcoin's increasingly strategic role in the global economy.
The number of countries mining Bitcoin using government resources
Source: VanEck Research, as of December 2024.
We expect this supportive stance on Bitcoin to ripple throughout the U.S. crypto ecosystem. As regulatory clarity and incentives attract talent and companies back, the share of global crypto developers based in the U.S. will rise from 19% to 25%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin mining in the U.S. will thrive, and driven by cheap energy and potential favorable tax policies, the U.S. share of global mining hash rate will increase from 28% in 2024 to 35% by the end of 2025. These trends will collectively consolidate the U.S.'s leadership position in the global Bitcoin economy.
The share of Bitcoin hash rate held by U.S. public companies will reach 35%
Source: Data provided by JPMorgan, VanEck Research as of December 6, 2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Corporate Bitcoin holdings are expected to soar by 43%
In terms of corporate adoption, we expect enterprises to continue accumulating Bitcoin from retail investors. Currently, 68 public companies hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets, and we expect this number to reach 100 by 2025. Notably, we boldly predict that the total amount of Bitcoin held by private and public companies (currently 765,000 BTC) will exceed the 1.1 million BTC held by Satoshi Nakamoto within the next year. This means the corporate Bitcoin holdings will grow at an astonishing rate of 43% in the coming year.
The growth space for ownership of gold and Bitcoin: corporations and governments
Source: VanEck Research as of December 2024.
3. The value of tokenized securities exceeds $50 billion
Onchain securities will grow by 61% in 2024
Source: RWA.xyz, Defillama as of December 6, 2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Crypto tracks are expected to improve the financial system by enhancing efficiency, decentralization, and transparency. We believe 2025 will be a year of soaring tokenized securities. Currently, there are tokenized securities valued at approximately $12 billion on the blockchain, most of which ($9.5 billion) are tokenized private credit securities listed on Figure's semi-permissioned blockchain Provenance.
In the future, we see tremendous potential for tokenized securities to be issued on public chains. We believe investors have many incentives to push for tokenized stocks or debt securities to be issued explicitly on-chain. Next year, we expect entities like DTCC to enable tokenized assets to seamlessly transition between public chains and private closed infrastructures. This dynamic will set standards for executing AML/KYC for on-chain investors. As a wildcard, we predict that Coinbase will take unprecedented steps to tokenize COIN stock and deploy it on its BASE blockchain.
4. Stablecoin daily settlement volume reaches $300 billion
Monthly stablecoin transfer volume in 2024 (in USD) grows by 180%
Source: Artemis XYZ as of December 6, 2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Stablecoins will surpass their niche status in cryptocurrency trading to become a core part of global commerce. By the end of 2025, we expect stablecoins to settle daily transfers of $300 billion, equivalent to 5% of the current trading volume of DTCC, up from about $100 billion daily in November 2024. Adoption by large tech companies (like Apple and Google) and payment networks (Visa, Mastercard) will redefine payment economics.
In addition to transactions, the remittance market is also expected to experience explosive growth. For example, stablecoin transfers between the U.S. and Mexico could grow fivefold, from $8 million per month to $400 million. Why? Speed, cost savings, and the growing trust of millions who no longer view stablecoins as an experiment but as practical tools. While much is said about blockchain adoption, stablecoins are its Trojan horse.
5. Onchain activities of AI agents exceed 1 million agents
AI agents generate total revenue of $8.7 million over 5 weeks
Source: Dune @jdhpyer as of December 6, 2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
We believe one of the most compelling narratives will be AI agents, which will translate into significant appeal by 2025. AI agents are specialized AI bots that guide users to achieve outcomes such as 'maximizing yield' or 'stimulating X/Twitter engagement.' Agents leverage their ability to autonomously change strategies to optimize these outcomes. AI agents are typically fed data and trained to focus on one domain. Currently, protocols like Virtuals provide tools for anyone to create AI agents to perform on-chain tasks. Virtuals allows non-experts to access decentralized AI agent contributors, such as fine-tuners, dataset providers, and model developers, so that non-technical individuals can create their own AI agents. The result will be a surge in the number of agents that their creators can rent out to generate income.
Currently, the focus for agents being built is DeFi, but we believe AI agents will extend beyond financial activities. Agents can serve as social media influencers, computer players in games, and interactive partners/assistants in consumer applications. Agents have already become significant X/Twitter influencers, such as Bixby and Terminal of Truths, who have 92,000 and 197,000 followers, respectively. Therefore, we believe the immense potential of agents will give rise to over 1 million new agents by 2025.
6. The total locked value (TVL) of Bitcoin's second layer reaches 100,000 BTC
The total locked amount of Bitcoin L2 reaches 30,000 BTC, growing 600% year-to-date in 2024
Source: Defillama as of December 6, 2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities mentioned in this article.
We are closely watching the emergence of Bitcoin's second layer (L2) blockchains, which have the potential to transform the Bitcoin ecosystem. Scaling Bitcoin allows these L2 solutions to achieve lower latency and higher transaction throughput, addressing the limitations of the base layer. Furthermore, Bitcoin L2 enhances the capabilities of Bitcoin by introducing smart contract functionalities, which can support a robust decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem built around Bitcoin.
Currently, Bitcoin can be transferred from the Bitcoin blockchain to smart contract platforms via bridged or wrapped BTC, which rely on third-party systems that are vulnerable to hacking and security flaws. Bitcoin L2 solutions aim to address these risks by providing a framework that integrates directly with the Bitcoin base layer, minimizing reliance on centralized intermediaries. While liquidity constraints and adoption barriers remain, Bitcoin L2 is expected to enhance security and decentralization, allowing BTC holders to use their Bitcoin more confidently in decentralized ecosystems.
As shown, Bitcoin L2 solutions experienced explosive growth in 2024, with total locked value (TVL) exceeding 30,000 BTC, growing 600% year-to-date, totaling approximately $3 billion. Currently, there are over 75 Bitcoin L2 projects in development, but only a few may achieve widespread adoption in the long term.
This rapid growth reflects the strong demand from BTC holders seeking yield and broader asset utility. As chain abstraction technologies and Bitcoin L2 gradually mature into user-ready products, Bitcoin will also become an integral part of DeFi. For example, platforms like Ika on Sui or Near chain abstraction used in Infinex highlight how innovative multi-chain solutions will enhance Bitcoin's interoperability with other ecosystems.
By implementing secure and efficient on-chain lending and other permissionless DeFi solutions, Bitcoin L2 and abstraction technologies will transform Bitcoin from a passive store of value into an active participant in decentralized ecosystems. As the scale of adoption expands, these technologies will create enormous opportunities for on-chain liquidity, cross-chain innovation, and a more integrated financial future.
7. Ethereum blob space generates $1 billion in fees
Source: Dune @hildobby as of December 6, 2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The Ethereum community is actively discussing whether Ethereum has gained enough value through Blob Space from its second layer (L2) network, which is a key component of its scalability roadmap. Blob Space serves as a dedicated data layer where L2 submits its compressed transaction history to Ethereum and pays ETH fees per blob. While this architecture supports Ethereum's scalability, the value that L2 currently exports to the mainnet is minimal, with a gross margin of about 90%. This raises concerns that Ethereum's economic value may overly shift to L2, leading to underutilization of the base layer.
Despite a recent slowdown in the growth of Blob Space, we expect its usage to expand dramatically by 2025, largely driven by three key factors:
Explosive L2 adoption: As users migrate to low-cost, high-throughput environments for DeFi, gaming, and social applications, transaction volume on Ethereum L2 has grown at an annualized rate exceeding 300%. As more transaction flows return to Ethereum for final settlement, the surge in consumer-facing dApps on L2 will significantly increase demand for Blob Space.
Rollup optimization: Advances in rollup technology, such as improved data compression and reduced costs for publishing data to Blob Space, will encourage L2s to store more transactional data on Ethereum without sacrificing decentralization for higher throughput.
Introduction of high-fee use cases: The rise of enterprise-grade applications, zk-rollup driven financial solutions, and tokenized real-world assets will drive high-value transactions, prioritizing security and immutability, increasing the willingness to pay Blob Space fees.
By the end of 2025, we expect Blob Space fees to exceed $1 billion, up from currently negligible levels. This growth will solidify Ethereum's position as the ultimate settlement layer for decentralized applications while enhancing its ability to capture value from the rapidly expanding L2 ecosystem. Ethereum's Blob Space will expand the network and become a primary source of revenue, balancing the economic relationship between the mainnet and L2.
8. DeFi hits an all-time high, with DEX trading volume reaching $4 trillion and TVL reaching $200 billion
Source: Defillama as of December 6, 2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Despite decentralized exchanges (DEX) achieving all-time high trading volumes (both in absolute terms and relative to centralized exchanges (CEX)), the total locked value (TVL) of decentralized finance (DeFi) remains 24% lower than its peak. We expect DEX trading volume to exceed $4 trillion by 2025, accounting for 20% of CEX spot trading volume, driven by AI-related tokens and new consumer-facing dApps.
Moreover, the influx of tokenized securities and high-value assets will foster the growth of DeFi, providing new liquidity and broader utility. Therefore, we expect DeFi TVL to rebound to over $200 billion by year-end, reflecting the growing demand for decentralized financial infrastructure in the evolving digital economy.
9. NFT market recovery, with trading volume reaching $30 billion
Source: As of December 6, 2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities mentioned in this article.
The bear market from 2022 to 2023 hit the NFT industry hard, with trading volume plummeting 39% since 2023 and 84% since 2022. While prices of fungible tokens began to recover in 2024, most NFTs lagged, with weak prices and inactivity until November when a turning point occurred. Despite these challenges, some standout projects have leveraged strong community ties to transcend speculative value, thereby resisting the downward trend.
For example, Pudgy Penguins has successfully transformed into a consumer brand through collectible toys, while Miladys has gained cultural status in the realm of ironic internet culture. Similarly, Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) continues to evolve into a dominant cultural force, attracting widespread attention from brands, celebrities, and mainstream media.
With the rebound of crypto wealth, we expect newly wealthy users to invest in NFTs, not just as speculative investments but as assets with lasting cultural and historical significance. Given the strong cultural prestige and relevance of well-known collectibles like CryptoPunks and Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC), they are likely to benefit from this shift. While BAYC and CryptoPunks remain well below their historical trading peaks, having declined approximately 90% and 66% respectively in ETH terms, other projects like Pudgy Penguins and Miladys have already surpassed their previous price highs.
Ethereum continues to dominate the NFT space, holding most of the significant collections. By 2024, it accounts for 71% of NFT trading, and we expect this figure to rise to 85% by 2025. This dominance is reflected in market cap rankings, where Ethereum-based NFTs occupy all top 10 positions and 16 of the top 20, highlighting the blockchain's central role in the NFT ecosystem.
Although NFT trading volume may not return to the excitement highs of previous cycles, we believe that as the market shifts towards sustainability and cultural relevance instead of speculative hype, an annual trading volume of $30 billion is achievable, approximately 55% of the 2021 peak.
10. DApp tokens narrow performance gap with L1 tokens
Source: Market Vectors as of December 8, 2024. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The MVSCLE index tracks smart contract platform tokens. The MVIALE index tracks infrastructure application tokens.
A consistent theme of the 2024 bull market is that first-layer (L1) blockchain tokens significantly outperform decentralized application (dApp) tokens. For instance, the MVSCLE index tracking smart contract platforms has risen 80% year-to-date, whereas the MVIALE index tracking application tokens has only returned 35% in the same period, lagging behind.
However, we expect this dynamic to change in late 2024 as a wave of new dApps launch, providing innovative and practical products, thereby bringing value to their respective tokens. Among the major thematic trends, we believe AI (artificial intelligence) is a prominent category of dApp innovation. Additionally, decentralized physical infrastructure network (DePIN) projects have tremendous potential to attract investor and user interest, helping to achieve broader performance rebalancing between L1 tokens and dApp tokens.
This shift emphasizes the increasing importance of usability and product-market fit for the success of application tokens in the ever-evolving cryptocurrency landscape.
