Hello, I hope you have a great day. I'm sharing how I see the market this week; I speculate a bullish start, although I must point out that, from a technical perspective, in the daily, weekly, and monthly frames, the price of BTC is at overbought levels.
I do not base all my probabilities on indicators, as they reflect the past behavior of the market. I know that at any moment, large participants can inject or withdraw capital significantly, altering expected movements. However, I observe certain historical patterns: the price tends to behave cyclically over the years, although currently the big difference is that BTC is at very high levels, while most altcoins, with a few exceptions, remain lagging at low levels.
This suggests, in my opinion, a loss of correlation within the crypto market. If BTC continues to rise, its dominance is likely to increase as well. However, considering the strong overbought level in the daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes, I estimate that BTC could experience an average correction close to 20%. Of course, such a correction in altcoins could be even greater.
Additionally, we are halfway through the monthly candle, and a consolidation of strength is already noticeable. My personal strategy remains the accumulation of altcoins on retracements and key levels, just as I did during the recent drop. I review my portfolio frequently and, in the face of significant movements, adjust positions. My goal in this bullish cycle, or alt season, is to accumulate more USD than cryptocurrencies. I am a trader and have projects that I trust for the long term, but when I detect overbought conditions on weekly or monthly frames, I start taking partial profits.
Of course, this is not an investment recommendation. Many coins still have a long way to go; the crypto market is vast, and there are many more options beyond BTC. The key is to seek them out, analyze them, and manage risk appropriately. I always remember that, unlike other financial markets, crypto is unique in its dynamics. Personally, I am never 100% out or 100% in: I usually move between 30% and 70% exposed, and more than 90% of my trades are in spot. This week will be very interesting. Thank you for reading, have an excellent day and
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