Will altcoins surge across the board?

In the bull market of 2021, the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market reached a peak of $2.8 trillion, with the total market capitalization of altcoins hitting $1.6 trillion. During the process of Bitcoin rising from the previous high of $20,000 to $60,000, the total market capitalization of altcoins soared from $200 billion to $1.6 trillion, an increase of about 8 times. Currently, the international cryptocurrency market capitalization is $3.8 trillion, changing by 0.53% in the past 24 hours and 135.66% over the past year.

At present, BTC's market capitalization is $2 trillion, with Bitcoin's dominance at 52.41%. Meanwhile, the market capitalization of stablecoins is $200 billion, accounting for 5.38% of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization. Assuming you still believe that the total market capitalization of altcoins can increase by another 8 times, then the future total market capitalization of altcoins would need to reach $12 trillion. If we consider BTC at 40% at that time, the peak total market capitalization in the bull market would need to reach $19 trillion. This is more than 5 times the last bull market, and subtracting the current $3.8 trillion means we need an additional $15 trillion in liquidity. So, where will such a massive amount of funds come from?

You might think that many altcoins have not increased in price, but from another perspective, they have actually risen quite a bit. Take ARB as an example; from a price performance standpoint, ARB seems to have little increase, and its price trend even resembles that of a stablecoin. However, if we analyze from a market capitalization perspective, ARB's market capitalization has grown by over a billion dollars in the past year. This is because its token circulation increased from an initial 12.75% to the current 26.5%.

For those tokens with completely diluted valuations that are relatively high, even if their prices do not seem to have risen significantly, maintaining their market capitalization still requires a substantial amount of investors (funds) to support it. Currently, there are many popular projects with high FDV in the market, and if you still expect these new high FDV projects to rise tenfold or even a hundredfold, one cannot help but ask, where will such enormous funds come from? Therefore, this bull market will not surge across the board like in 2021; the altcoin season only belongs to certain tokens. Finding the right targets also requires a bit of luck. If you are afraid of missing the altcoin season, the only thing you can do is look for a high-cost-performance entry point and set a stop-loss. As for whether it can break historical highs again, luck is very important.