The NFT market has recently seen impressive performance: In November 2024, NFT minting reached a historical high of $1.5 billion, with 97% of the minting volume coming from the Base network. This phenomenon inevitably reminds us of the peak moments of NFTs in 2021-2022, but is the market truly recreating its brilliance, or is it a brief rebound after bottoming out? Let’s analyze together.
Base: A new engine for NFT minting
Base, as a Layer 2 network on Ethereum launched by Coinbase, has played an important role in the recovery of the NFT market:
The rise of the developer ecosystem: Base has attracted over 4,287 developers, becoming the core hub for NFT minting and innovation, surpassing other popular Layer 2 solutions such as Arbitrum, Starknet, and Optimism.
An efficient and low-cost minting environment: Compared to the Ethereum mainnet, Base offers lower gas fees and higher transaction efficiency, making it the preferred platform for NFT projects.
Layer 2 solutions represented by Base have lowered the threshold for NFT minting, providing more opportunities for small and medium-sized creators while attracting a new wave of developers and users into this field.
Current state of the NFT market: Recovery or stagnation?
Although NFT minting and trading volumes have rebounded, the overall health of the market still appears insufficient compared to the peak periods of 2021/22:
1. Significant shrinkage in market capitalization and trading volume
Total market value of NFTs: After peaking at $652 billion in May 2022, it currently maintains around $33.6 billion, a decline of nearly 95%.
Sales: Dropped from a historical high of $148 billion to a stable low, with only occasional brief spikes.
This indicates that despite signs of recovery, the overall market size remains in a trough after 'de-bubbling'.
2. The difficulty of cyclical growth and new highs
Historical data shows that the activity of the NFT market exhibits cyclical fluctuations. However, the current recovery lacks the large-scale external stimulus seen in 2021 (e.g., the explosion of blue-chip projects like BAYC). Additionally, user interest in NFTs has become more rational, with speculative behavior decreasing.
3. Outstanding performance of emerging projects
Despite the overall market downturn, individual NFT series on the Base network have still seen impressive gains:
Oracle Patron NFT: Price surged by 113,231%, with a trading volume of 1,132 ETH.
Chonks and GENESIS by PlayerZero: Increases of 16,181% and 13,987%, respectively.
The success of these projects indicates that innovation-driven 'individual prosperity' still has opportunities, but is still insufficient to drive the entire market back to its peak.
Can the peak of 2021 be recreated? Several core questions
1. The market environment has changed
The NFT bull market of 2021 heavily relied on the overall prosperity of the cryptocurrency market and a massive influx of speculative capital. The 'wealth effect' at that time encouraged many new users to purchase digital artworks at high prices. However, the current market has become more rational, with more users focusing on the actual value and utility of NFTs.
2. Technological advancements and user growth
The success of Base indicates that Layer 2 solutions are driving the continuous evolution of NFT minting technology, but the speed of user growth is far from the explosive expansion of 2021. Although Santiment data shows a surge in new Ethereum addresses in December 2024, this growth is more concentrated in gaming and utility NFTs, rather than high-priced artworks or PFPs (profile picture NFTs).
3. The next step for NFTs: From speculation to practicality
In the future, the development of NFTs may rely more on their practical applications in areas such as on-chain identity, in-game assets, and membership rights, rather than purely on price speculation. For example:
Digital Identity: As proof of on-chain identity, NFTs can unlock unique services and experiences.
GameFi Assets: The gaming NFT market is growing rapidly and is a potential area for the next explosion.
Future outlook: Will Base be the starting point of the next NFT craze?
Optimistic forecast: Base will incubate a new wave of NFT projects
The activity and innovation of developers on Base may give rise to more high-quality NFT projects by 2025. As user interest in digital assets recovers, Base could become a key engine driving market recovery.
Cautious viewpoint: The market may find it difficult to replicate the fervor of 2021
Although the market environment, technological tools, and user interest are recovering, the peak period of 2021 was the result of multiple factors overlapping, making it difficult to replicate in the short term. Future market growth is more likely to be moderate and sustained rather than a one-time explosion.
New opportunities in the NFT market
The rise of Base has injected new vitality into the NFT market and revealed the potential for industry recovery. However, the current market is still in a post-bubble adjustment phase, a considerable distance from the highlights of 2021. In the future, true breakthroughs may come from improvements in NFT utility and further technological innovation.
Investors need to remember: this is not an era of speculative bubbles, but a moment to explore value. The next peak of NFTs may require more patience than you think.
