In the fourth quarter of 2024, a new round of bull market in the cryptocurrency space will begin. Bitcoin is not only the technological fuel of the macro economy but also the foundational currency of the digital age. Under improved regulations, this may be the last massive growth cycle for BTC, as well as the start of a reshuffle in the industry. This article is sourced from Tony Ling (凌子昂), written under the pen name Longye, and is organized, translated, and authored by PANews. (Background: Bitcoin supply tightening) Significant outflows from exchanges trigger the "short squeeze alert" as BTC breaks through $102,000.) (Background supplement: VanEck's 2025 top 10 predictions: Bitcoin will reach a mid-term peak in Q1 next year, Solana spot ETF approved, DeFi innovations hit new highs...) Article Summary As of the writing of this article in Q4 2024, this marks the early stage of a new bull market in the cryptocurrency space. The value of BTC in the macro domain can be likened to bonds and stocks in financial history, as the "fuel" for a new round of human technological development; in the meso domain, it serves as the currency of the digital world that humanity will inevitably enter, and also an index; in the micro domain, new legal regulations are being implemented, making the issuance of coins compliant, thus attracting global private investment demand. This may be the last "wild" cycle belonging to the crypto industry, as well as the last mega cycle where BTC sees significant beta growth. This implies that after this cycle, BTC's beta will significantly decrease, but it does not mean that the broader token issuance market will lack hundredfold alpha opportunities. The peak of this bull market for BTC will occur in Q4 2025, with a high point of $160,000 to $220,000. Prior to this, excluding the already occurred "first wave", there are still two significant mid-cycle trends in this bull market. We are currently in 1999 of the internet era, which means that after the bull market peaks in the next 12-18 months, the crypto industry will likely face a long winter, similar to the bursting of the internet bubble in 2000-2001. Of course, this is also an opportunity for reshuffling and restructuring in the industry. I look forward to it. When I feel the bull market is approaching, it is the time of highest productivity for my writings. About four years ago, at the beginning of the last cycle's bull market, I wrote (How should we invest in digital currencies in 2021?). When we discuss the entire digital currency industry, it is inevitable to first mention the value and price of BTC. If you already believe in the value of Bitcoin, feel free to jump directly to the fifth section, which discusses expectations for Bitcoin's future price trends. The value of one BTC, from the perspective of the industry, is divided into macro, meso, and micro levels. From a macro perspective, BTC represents the hedging expectations of the entire human financial market, and is the third "financial medium" that can be capitalized after bonds and stocks in human history; from a meso perspective, BTC is the best "index" of the future digital age that humanity will inevitably enter, also known as the web3 world; from a micro perspective, BTC is gradually becoming more compliant in regulatory aspects, attracting substantial "traditional money" in mainstream countries like the United States. In third-world countries, it siphons off unmet domestic private investment demands. On a macro level, if we see Bitcoin as a groundbreaking asset in human financial history, then the most important thing is to understand the changes in financial history. (In the first part of the series "How should we invest in digital currencies in 2021?"), we rectify the status of digital currencies from a technological historical perspective. Behind every technological revolution, there are important financial infrastructures and new financial "mediums" created. Behind finance lies the changing geopolitical landscape. At this moment, we may be experiencing the most perplexing period in global political and economic dynamics in the past thirty years, and also the moment when the traditional financial order is most fragile and likely to undergo significant reshuffling. I can no longer trace back to whether similar financial venues like the London Stock Exchange or New York Stock Exchange existed during famous financial bubbles like the "Dutch Tulip Mania" hundreds of years ago, or whether Dutch vendors were just accustomed to offline trading, speculating without establishing rules and order, leading to the eventual collapse of that bubble. However, throughout history, every memorable technological innovation has been accompanied by transformations in financial formalization, and these transformations are an inevitable product of changing geopolitical circumstances. These are causally interrelated and mutually reinforcing, ultimately leading to a prominent chapter in human history. I cannot envision if, without the Civil War that dramatically changed American social dynamics, reshaping social classes and encouraging technological innovation to enter the industry, the Second Industrial Revolution would still have begun in Britain but ultimately flourished in America, becoming a milestone. At the same time, I have a more radical viewpoint: when everyone talks about economic stagnation and discusses how to find feasible business models—why does business itself need a business model? Has the term "business model" itself lost its meaning? Here are more of my thoughts, which are somewhat complex, and I will not elaborate further, but will expand on it in my future article (Philosophical Musings on Business and Investment — A Supplement to the Four-Part Series on Crypto Capital). (Related reading: (Four-Part Series on Crypto Capital - Part 1: Token Issuance, New Normalization of Financing)) [Excerpt: Discussing business models in the contemporary business and financial environment refers to the context that has developed a common pathway over the past century, with "corporate structure" as the mainstream business entity: expanding market size, increasing employee numbers, ultimately going public, and valuing stocks through profit * PE. This pathway may no longer hold in the future. In today's "social capital" (or expressed as "private economy"), equity enterprises may account for 95% of the value, while publicly listed companies, which anchor their value in stocks, hold most of the capital value. However, in the future, this value may exist more in "business" (why can't limited partnerships be a part of this) and "tokens" (foundations). 2. Let's spend a little more time discussing the industry meso perspective of BTC. At the end of the book I published in 2021, the first point in the eight major predictions mentioned that BTC is unbeatable. Referring to the e-book version of my book (Unlocking New Passwords – From Blockchain to Digital Currency) in the postscript four—From the perspective of the technology industry, web3 is the inevitable trend of the future, and Bitcoin is the core asset of the entire web3 world, or in economic terms, should be called a "currency." In ancient barter, gold was the most common "currency," while in the modern nation-state and financial system, national currency became the most common "currency." In the future, with the advent of the digital age, all aspects of life in the metaverse's virtual space will require a new "currency." So, some people cling to the notion of "why are you investing in a token" without understanding its significance. Blockchain and crypto need a "+" just like when someone asks you what field you are investing in, you say, "I want to invest in equity enterprises," or "I want to invest in an internet enterprise." As a unique industry, web3, with crypto as a new market means and financial medium, is gradually integrating with other industries—blockchain + AI = DeAI, blockchain + finance = DeFi, blockchain + entertainment/art = NFT + metaverse, blockchain + research = DeSci,...

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