Today's DOGE/USDT market is like a "bull-bear fight", with golden crosses and dead crosses switching back and forth. The market sentiment is restless, and traders can't help but take action while waiting and watching.
The following is my analysis of today’s trend:
1. Bulls lost control and the market fell into a short-term melee
Judging from the trading data, today's bulls seem to be "lacking strength and endurance". After multiple golden crosses, the increase generally does not exceed 0.5%. For example, after the golden cross at 14:00, the price briefly surged to 0.4110, but failed to maintain it, and then was pushed back to the downward channel by the dead cross at 15:15. This performance shows that the bulls lack confidence and the buying has not formed a joint force.
Conclusion: The market bulls only have temporary explosive power and lack dominance.
2. Bears are stronger, but cannot 'lock the throat'
From the performance of the death cross, it seems that bears dominated the market throughout the day, especially during the two death crosses at 23:45 and 02:45, when trading volume surged to 8878.1154 and 3254.2725 respectively. However, the bears did not actually widen the downward space, and the price remained consolidated in the range of 0.4050~0.4150.
Conclusion: Bears have the upper hand, but have not formed a decisive suppression.
3. Whale movements: Volume surge reveals hidden clues
Today's trading volume showed two significant surges, one during the death cross at 23:45, when the trading volume broke 8000+, and another at 02:45. These data suggest that there may be whale funds creating market fluctuations, with a clear intent to wash out short-term long and short positions. Especially when high trading volume coincides with volatility, ordinary investors are easily swept away.
Conclusion: Whales may be controlling the market, ordinary players need to be cautious in chasing highs and cutting losses.
4. The actual significance of technical signals
Although MACD and EMA signals are frequently issued, the data shows that the amplitude of most signals is relatively small, especially 'the upward momentum after the golden cross is insufficient, and the pullback after the death cross does not continue'. This indicates that the market is currently not following traditional technical logic, but is more reliant on external factors, such as macro sentiment or news stimulation.
Conclusion: Technical signals are ineffective in the short term, and market sentiment dominates trading rhythm.
5. Suggestions
Short-term speculators: Suitable for quick in-and-out trades when signal switches, but must strictly set stop-loss to avoid liquidation due to whale control.
Medium to long-term holders: Can choose to observe and wait for the market trend to become clearer before entering, to avoid being repeatedly 'cut' in the current volatile range.
Personal stance
Today's market performance indicates that although DOGE maintains a certain level of popularity, there is currently no clear trend. Whales are in control, retail investors are observing, while bulls and bears are depleting the market's trading confidence during their competition. In the short term, I am more optimistic about the bearish strength, as bulls have shown weakness despite multiple golden crosses, indicating that the rise lacks substantial support.
But then again, DOGE coin has its own logic - no logic. Perhaps some horse or person casually tweets, and it can instantly trigger a wave of market activity.