Will altcoins surge across the board?
Question one:
In the bull market of 2021, the total market cap of the cryptocurrency market peaked at $2.8 trillion, with altcoins reaching a total market cap of $1.6 trillion. During the process of Bitcoin (BTC) rising from the previous high of $20,000 to $60,000, the total market cap of altcoins skyrocketed from $200 billion to $1.6 trillion, an increase of about 8 times. The current international cryptocurrency market cap is $3.8 trillion, which has changed by 0.53% in the past 24 hours and 135.66% in the past year.
As of today, Bitcoin (BTC) has a market cap of $2 trillion, with a dominance rate of 52.41%. Meanwhile, the market cap of stablecoins is $200 billion, accounting for 5.38% of the total cryptocurrency market cap. Assuming you still believe that the total market cap of altcoins can rise 8 times, then the future total market cap of altcoins would need to reach $12 trillion. If at that time we consider BTC.D to be 40%, then the highest total market cap in the bull market would have to reach $19 trillion. This is more than 5 times the last bull market, and subtracting the current $3.8 trillion means we still need $15 trillion in liquidity. So, where will such a massive amount of funds come from?
Second question:
You might think that many altcoins haven't increased in price, but from another perspective, they have actually risen quite a bit. Take ARB as an example; from a price performance standpoint, ARB doesn't seem to have much of an increase, and its price trend even resembles a stablecoin. However, from a market capitalization perspective, ARB's market cap has grown by over a billion dollars in the past year. This is because its token circulation has increased from the initial 12.75% to the current 26.5%.
For tokens with a high fully diluted valuation (FDV), even if their prices don’t appear to have increased significantly, maintaining their market cap actually requires a substantial number of investors (funds) to support them. Currently, there are many popular projects with high FDV in the market, and if you still expect these new high FDV projects to rise tenfold or even a hundredfold, one must ask, where will such massive funds come from? Thus, this bull market will not see a sweeping surge like in 2021; the altseason will only belong to certain tokens, and finding the right targets also requires a bit of luck. If you're afraid of missing the altseason, the only thing you can do is look for a cost-effective entry point and set a stop-loss. As for whether it can break the historical high again, luck plays a significant role.
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