BTC Trend Analysis: Major Moves Expected Tonight!
BTC is still quite strong right now, the MA7 support on the daily chart is really effective. I mentioned yesterday that the 99,500 position is very critical, and indeed BTC dropped to around 99,200 and then bounced back; this support is solid.
Tonight, BTC has to make a choice. At 5 AM, we will find out whether MSTR can enter the Nasdaq 100; I see a 90% probability for that, which is why the bulls are so aggressive right now.
Let's talk about support and resistance. The short-term support is still around 99,400, which is BTC's current "safety line." The 1-hour resistance is 101,600, while the daily resistance is 102,500. If MSTR does not enter the Nasdaq 100, BTC may drop a bit more, so we need to pay attention to the 97,500 position.
Now, let's see what's happening outside. Gold prices have dropped a bit, indicating that risk aversion sentiment has slightly decreased, but there's no major bad news. In the U.S. stock market, tech stocks are performing well, which should be good news for BTC when it opens tonight. However, BTC will mainly fluctuate slightly tonight; the big show will wait for the result at 5 AM.
In simple terms, if U.S. stocks rise, BTC will follow suit, but breaking through resistance is a bit difficult; the real breakthrough will depend on what happens at 5 AM.
ETH and other altcoins have dipped a bit, mainly because everyone is a bit worried about MSTR's situation at midnight. However, if MSTR succeeds, altcoins may likely rebound over the weekend.
The RSI index is now at 61, having pulled back a bit, which gives BTC more room to rise.
The premium for BTC futures and spot is now only 100 points, the lowest since November. This is mainly because the cycle options expired today, and new bullish orders have yet to accumulate.
In summary, BTC's situation tonight is still pretty good. If U.S. stocks rise, it can stabilize the price; the key will still depend on whether MSTR can enter the Nasdaq 100 at 5 AM, so let's wait and see!
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