Market Situation Overview:

1. Risk of Economic Recession in the U.S.:

• Société Générale points out that the U.S. unemployment rate has risen to 4.2%, exceeding the 36-month moving average, indicating an increased likelihood of economic recession.

• Corporate profit growth supported by high debt levels may reverse during a recession, potentially impacting the stock market.

• Market commentators believe that there is a historic bubble risk in U.S. stocks, with increasing pressure for a correction.

2. Optimistic Factors:

• U.S. GDP growth still shows resilience, with the Atlanta Fed forecasting a growth of 3.3% in the fourth quarter.

BTC and ETH Trading Recommendations:

1. BTC:

• Short-term Bullish: If U.S. stocks can maintain stability, BTC, as a safe-haven asset, is expected to benefit. If it breaks above $102,500, it could rally to $105,000.

• Downside Risk: If global funds flow out of high-risk assets due to recession expectations, BTC could fall below $99,000, requiring a stop-loss and wait-and-see approach.

2. ETH:

• Mid-term Positive: Growth in ETH's DeFi and technical applications (like Layer 2) supports a bullish outlook in the medium term. A break above $4,000 could see it reach $4,200.

• Short-term Correction Risk: If market panic intensifies, ETH may drop below $3,800, with a short position target of $3,700 recommended.

Strategy:

Closely monitor macroeconomic data, unemployment rates, and stock market volatility to quickly adjust long and short positions.