Major News Review
The released CPI data recorded at 0.3%, in line with expectations. This expected result further strengthens the expectation of interest rate cuts. Currently, the probability of an interest rate cut has risen to 98.6%, making it almost a certainty. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will announce a reduction in the interest rate to the range of 4.25%-4.5% at this month's meeting.
For Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market, there are currently two main issues:
Internal Factors: Regulatory Policies Since Trump took office, favorable regulatory policies are gradually being realized, including strategic reserves, large companies holding, easing regulations, and supporting mining companies and Web3 enterprises. The level of support is unprecedented in past cycles, so I refer to it as a "regulatory bull market." Although this cycle has not yet seen revolutionary narratives similar to the smart contracts of 2017 or DeFi and NFT of 2021, the favorable characteristics of regulation are very prominent.
Macroeconomic Factors: Global Economic Liquidity From a macro perspective, global liquidity is strengthening. The M2 indicator of the dollar shows that since the end of last year, M2 has been continuously recovering, and liquidity is gradually strengthening. Meanwhile, the dollar index has begun to weaken, which is good news for the cryptocurrency market.
Microsoft's Attitude Towards Bitcoin Microsoft shareholders expressed opposition to holding Bitcoin in a vote, with support rates even below 1%. Microsoft believes that Bitcoin is too volatile and unsuitable for its current business model. They choose to focus on stable cash flow businesses to create long-term value. However, I believe that Microsoft's success has limited their vision, making it difficult for them to quickly adjust their direction. In the future, this conservative strategy may cause Microsoft to miss opportunities in the Web3 and blockchain era.
The Threat of Quantum Computers to Bitcoin Regarding whether quantum computers will threaten Bitcoin, I recently recorded a member video explaining it in detail. The conclusion is: there is no need to worry at all in the short term. Currently, quantum computing technology is still a million times away from cracking Bitcoin private keys, and it is unlikely to be achieved in the coming decades. Of course, there are opinions that technological development may accelerate, but overall, Bitcoin remains secure.
