Is it possible for Bitcoin to rise to $150,000 after Trump takes office next month?
Favorable Factors
Positive Policy Expectations: During his campaign, Trump expressed support for cryptocurrencies and planned to support their development through policy, even proposing to use Bitcoin as a strategic reserve. If these commitments are fulfilled, market confidence will greatly increase, stimulating demand for Bitcoin among investors.
- Expectations of Regulatory Relaxation: Investors believe that Trump may reduce regulatory barriers in the cryptocurrency industry and relax financial regulations, which would support the development of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, thereby driving the price of Bitcoin up.
- Market Sentiment Drivers: Trump's election has already triggered bullish sentiment in the market, with significant capital flowing into the Bitcoin market. If this sentiment continues to grow, along with the trend-following support from institutional investors and retail investors, it may further drive Bitcoin's price up.
- Halving Effect: Bitcoin experienced a halving event this April, reducing the supply of new Bitcoins and increasing scarcity. Historically, Bitcoin prices have often risen after halving events, and this halving effect combined with Trump's presidency may further drive prices up.
Unfavorable Factors
- Policy Uncertainty: Although Trump has made supportive comments about Bitcoin, the formulation and implementation of specific policies will take time and may be constrained by various factors such as Congress, leading to uncertainty. If the policies do not meet expectations, the price of Bitcoin may decline.
- Regulatory Risks Still Exist: Even if Trump relaxes regulations, other regulatory agencies in the US financial system and the international community's regulatory stance may still negatively impact Bitcoin. For example, the US government may strengthen regulations on cryptocurrencies to combat crime and maintain financial stability, affecting the development of Bitcoin.
- Market Volatility Risk: Bitcoin's price is highly volatile, and technical indicators show a recent aggressive increase, posing a risk of correction. Additionally, other market factors such as changes in the global economy and geopolitical tensions may also lead to significant fluctuations in Bitcoin's price, hindering its rise to $150,000.
- Macroeconomic Impact: Trump's protectionist trade policies may increase inflationary pressures, leading the Federal Reserve to adopt tightening monetary policies, affecting market liquidity, and thus being unfavorable for the rise in Bitcoin prices.
Overall, the likelihood of Bitcoin rising to $150,000 next month after Trump takes office is relatively low. While there are some favorable factors driving its price up, various uncertainties and risks may also limit its increase.
