#BTC重返10万
It is worth noting that Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett warned earlier in the day that the strong rebound in the U.S. stock market and cryptocurrency market showed signs of overheating. Data shows that the price-to-book ratio of the S&P 500 index soared to 5.3 times in 2024, close to the 5.5 times level at the peak of the technology bubble in 2000.
Hartnett said that if the S&P 500 index approaches 6666 points (about 10% higher than the current level) in early 2025, the market may face the risk of "over-rising". Driven by the market optimism boosted by the artificial intelligence boom, the S&P 500 index has risen by about 27% this year, its best performance since 2019. At the same time, Trump's support for cryptocurrencies helped Bitcoin briefly break through $100,000 this week, with a market value of more than $2 trillion.
However, the bull-bear indicator of Bank of America shows that global investors have not yet shown irrational prosperity. At the same time, many institutions said that the short-term upward momentum of US stocks is limited.
Guozheng International said that at present, it seems that the Fed's interest rate cut in December is still the mainstream, but Powell mentioned that the economic strength and inflation situation have warmed up compared with their expectations in September, suggesting that the December SEP guidance is very likely to lower the pace of interest rate cuts in 2025. The agency recommends continuing to pay attention to next week's CPI (Consumer Price Index) data. Any derailed data now may become an excuse for the adjustment of US stocks. After all, both valuation and investment sentiment point to a mild adjustment that may come at any time.
Huafu Securities said that looking forward, against the background of relatively high valuations and a large market value of technology leaders, the short-term upward momentum of US stocks is limited. In terms of valuation, as of late November, the S&P 500 PE (FY1) was 25.3X, far exceeding the median of the past 10 years, and valuations of most industries were at high levels; in terms of market concentration, the top ten leading stocks accounted for more than 35%, the highest level in nearly 20 years.
