The key points of this article can be summarized as follows:
1. #Yoon Suk-yeol's Situation Analysis
• Political Setback: Yoon Suk-yeol is implicated in a rebellion charge due to the issuance of an 'emergency martial law order', leading to the South Korean National Assembly passing an arrest motion against him, effectively ending his political future.
• Persistence in Not Resigning: Despite being effectively stripped of power, Yoon Suk-yeol chooses to hold on, aiming to buy time and engage in a 'mutual destruction' scenario with the opposition leader Lee Jae-myung.
• Key Strategy: Yoon Suk-yeol is using delay tactics to buy time, hoping that the final judgment on Lee Jae-myung's corruption case will strip him of his candidacy, thus preventing him from taking power.
2. #Lee Jae-myung's Dilemma
• Entangled in Judicial Litigation: Lee Jae-myung faces multiple corruption and dereliction of duty criminal cases; he has already been sentenced to probation in the first instance, and if the final judgment takes effect, he will lose his member qualification.
• Time Disadvantage: The final judgment on Lee Jae-myung could be issued by May next year at the latest, and even if Yoon Suk-yeol resigns, a new election would take about 180 days, creating a relatively tight time window for Lee Jae-myung.
• Emphasizing “Speed”: Lee Jae-myung is accelerating the push for the impeachment motion in Congress while building media momentum, attempting to force Yoon Suk-yeol to resign early.
3. Political Game between Both Sides
• Ruling Party's Position: The People Power Party supports Yoon Suk-yeol's delay to weaken Lee Jae-myung's leading role against the opposition and to secure a favorable situation for the ruling party in the upcoming elections.
• Opposition Party's Offensive: The Democratic Party continues to initiate impeachment and media offensives, aiming to swiftly end Yoon Suk-yeol's political career.
4. Public Opinion Impact
• Public Reaction: Yoon Suk-yeol's reputation has plummeted due to the martial law order incident, but the delay tactics may gradually cool public sentiment, thereby reducing the ruling party's negative impact in the elections.
• Lee Jae-myung's Strategic Risk: If the judicial litigation turns unfavorable, Lee Jae-myung could suffer a political setback, granting the ruling party more electoral advantages.
5. Future Variables
• New Election Timing: If Yoon Suk-yeol is forced to resign after delaying for a while, the timing of the new election may coincide with Lee Jae-myung's judicial outcome, forming a critical juncture.
• Potential Winner: If both are ousted, South Korean politics may see the rise of a third-party force.
The political game between Yoon Suk-yeol and Lee Jae-myung is a race against time, with both sides in their respective crises. Yoon Suk-yeol is trying to use delay tactics to prevent Lee Jae-myung from ascending, while Lee Jae-myung is fully accelerating the impeachment and media attacks against Yoon Suk-yeol. The final outcome not only concerns the fates of the two but may also determine the future political landscape of South Korea.$BNB
