The probability of Ether($ETH ), the leading altcoin, reaching $5,000 by the end of the year is less than 10 percent.

On-chain options protocol Derive said the data looks positive for Ether, but doesn’t indicate a major upside. Derive said the chance of#ETHhitting $5,000 is very low.

Options Protocol stated that while a sudden surge on the price side is not expected, positive signals are coming from the US. The increase in fund inflows into US-based ETH exchange-traded funds shows that the popular altcoin is on the radar of institutions.

Derive predicts that $ETH won't hit an all-time high by the end of the year, but there could be a supply crunch on the ETF side.

Derive Research President Sean Dawson discussed ETH’s trajectory in his market report on December 10. Dawson stated that the probability of ETH breaking a record has decreased from 16 percent to 8 percent. The Derive CEO stated that ETH buys and sells are evenly distributed.

According to CoinGecko, ETH needs to jump more than 35 percent from its current levels to reach $5,000.

However, cryptocurrency analyst CoinMamba doesn’t think like Dawson. The analyst expects ETH to break a record by the end of the year. CoinMamba made the following statements;

“ETH will be worth $5,000, do what you want with that information.” Ethereum contributor Eric Conner noted that ETH ETFs have seen $300 million inflows daily and that these inflows will create a demand shock on the supply side.

In these days when Bitcoin is at $100,000, it is curious whether $ETH will break a record.