Happy CPI day to everyone who celebrates.
This is your friendly reminder that the Fed's reaction function is much more oriented towards labor market data than inflation data.
So if we want to interpret macro data and how it influences the market, CPI is relevant, but less important than it used to be and certainly much less important than labor market data.
Today's print can certainly move the market, but please remember that the market's reaction will be dependent on how the data comes in relative to EXPECTATIONS.
Median estimates are projecting for headline inflation to come in at +2.7% YoY and core inflation of +3.3%.
In other words, the market is already priced for a modest acceleration or stagnation in CPI inflation and is still expecting the Fed to cut.
There will be a lot of nonsense spewed after the data comes out in ~30 minutes, from a lot of people who have been dead-wrong on inflation & macro over the past 2 years.
Don't listen to them.
Instead, continue to listen to the analysts who have navigated this market properly and the ones who have been able to stay objective.
You must listen to the weight of the evidence, not just one niche datapoint or another niche datapoint.
The weight of the evidence.
Stay focused, cut through the BS, and lock in.
