Table of contents:
6. BTC contract liquidation map, intuitively reflecting the risk control position;
7. The Shanzhai Index reached a high of 88 and then fell back, which is in line with the risk zone prediction;
8. Token large amount unlocking data preview.
9. Interpretation of fundamental hot spots: Interpretation of hot spots: Focus on CPI inflation data.
6. BTC contract liquidation map, intuitively reflecting the risk control position
According to the latest contract data, if the BTC price breaks through $100,000, short orders worth $1.332 billion will be liquidated;
If the BTC price falls below $93,840, long orders worth $14 will be liquidated.
7. The Shanzhai Index reached a high of 88 and then fell back, which is in line with the prediction of the risk area.
Currently, the latest value of the altcoin index is around 63. In last week's research report, we mentioned that 'if the altcoin index exceeds 80, we need to be cautious as it approaches the risk zone; the previous high was 85.' Two weeks ago, we noted 'it is in a healthy state in the short term, but caution is needed if it exceeds 85 in the future.' This round peaked at 88 before retreating, aligning with our risk area prediction. The overall crypto market adjusted as expected on Monday evening. Although BTC did not hit a new low for this phase, the significant declines in altcoins contributed to the overall liquidation scale far exceeding that of the 312 period.
The crypto market sector has mostly retreated by more than 10%, with Layer 1, Layer 2 sectors, Meme, RWA, and DeFi sectors leading the decline, while BTC, ETH, and CeFi sectors have been relatively resilient.
8. Token Large Unlock Data Preview:
This week, APT, STRK, and SEI will experience a one-time large token unlock, releasing a total value of over $200 million, including:
Aptos (APT) will unlock 11.31 million tokens on December 12 at 0:00, worth approximately $163 million, accounting for 2.11% of the circulating supply;
Starknet (STRK) will unlock 64 million tokens on December 15 at 8:00, worth approximately $49.51 million, accounting for 2.83% of the circulating supply;
Sei (SEI) will unlock 55.56 million tokens on December 15 at 20:00, worth approximately $38.24 million, accounting for 1.39% of the circulating supply;
Cardano (ADA) will unlock 18.53 million tokens on December 11 at 8:00, worth approximately $22.05 million, accounting for 0.05% of the circulating supply.
This week, pay attention to the negative effects of these tokens due to unlocking, avoid spot trading, and seek short-selling opportunities in contracts. Among them, APT has a large unlocking proportion and scale, so pay extra attention.
9. Hot Topic Interpretation: Focus on CPI Inflation Data
The U.S. is about to release significant inflation data tonight. As an important indicator of consumer goods and service price levels, changes in CPI have far-reaching effects on investors, consumers, and policymakers. The dollar, gold, U.S. stocks, and the crypto market will all react.
This CPI data is highly anticipated as it is the last significant inflation data before the Federal Reserve's final monetary policy meeting in 2024. The market generally expects the inflation rate in November to rebound from last month's 2.6% to 2.7%, while the core CPI is expected to remain in the range of 3.2% to 3.3%. Recent market performance shows that gold prices have risen significantly, reflecting investors' concerns about geopolitical instability and inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, the U.S. stock market has experienced a decline as investors maintain a cautious stance ahead of the inflation data release.
Changes in CPI data have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. If CPI data unexpectedly rises, it may prompt the Federal Reserve to pause rate cuts earlier or even reverse previous easing policies. This is because high inflation erodes the purchasing power of currency, posing a threat to economic growth and social stability. Therefore, the Federal Reserve needs to closely monitor the trend of CPI and adjust monetary policy accordingly. Additionally, CPI data also has a broad impact on the global economy. High inflation may lead to rising import costs, thereby increasing production costs and consumer prices, putting pressure on the global economy. Conversely, if CPI data remains stable or is lower than expected, it may help alleviate market concerns about inflation and boost investor confidence.
CPI data also has a significant impact on the crypto market. On one hand, if the CPI data rises and prompts a policy adjustment by the Federal Reserve, it may lead to a decrease in investors' risk appetite, thereby putting pressure on the crypto market. On the other hand, if the CPI data meets expectations or is lower than expected, it may boost investor sentiment and drive the crypto market up. It is important to note that the crypto market is influenced by various factors, including market sentiment, regulatory policies, technological innovations, and its own narrative logic. While we pay attention to the data, we should also focus on the industry itself.
