At a recent shareholder meeting, Microsoft shareholders voted against a proposal for the board to study investing 1% of total assets into Bitcoin.
Proposal Overview.
The proposal was put forward by the National Public Policy Research Center, suggesting that Microsoft consider diversifying 1% of its $78.4 billion in cash and securities into Bitcoin as a strategy to combat inflation.
The results of the shareholder vote and the market reaction.
After the voting results were announced, Microsoft's stock price fluctuated around $446, remaining basically flat.
The price of Bitcoin also fell after the news was released, dropping by 4% within 24 hours to $95,700.
This reaction indicates the market's disappointment with Microsoft's failure to join the Bitcoin investment ranks.
Polymarket's odds.
In discussing whether Microsoft will invest in Bitcoin, Polymarket provides an interesting perspective.
According to Polymarket data, investors believe the probability of Microsoft investing in Bitcoin is only 13%.
This data is not simply the result of a poll, but is derived from actual market transactions, providing higher credibility.
13% probability: The market believes that the likelihood of Microsoft investing in Bitcoin is low, but if it happens, it would be very positive.
87% probability: The market generally believes that this proposal will not succeed, which may bring a slight negative impact.
With this quantitative data, the market has already digested this low-probability event and there is no need for excessive concern.
The event with a 13% probability did not occur, which does not constitute a substantial negative impact.
Michael Saylor tried his best!
Michael Saylor pointed out in his speech that Microsoft has given up about $200 billion in capital over the past five years through dividend payments and stock buybacks, funds that could have been used to purchase Bitcoin.
He believes that Microsoft missed the opportunity to achieve higher returns through Bitcoin investment. However, despite Saylor's arguments raising some attention, shareholders still chose to act cautiously.
