As the last Federal Reserve meeting of the year approaches, the CPI data set to be released tonight is attracting significant attention. The market generally expects a slight rebound in the overall CPI, and although the Federal Reserve strives to keep inflation within the 2% target range, recent volatility in economic indicators has raised considerable uncertainty, especially against the backdrop of Trump's potential return to the White House, where future trade policies and tax reforms may further impact the interest rate cut trajectory.
CPI is coming, but the outlook for interest rate cuts has changed
AICoin (aicoin.com) data shows that the market expects tonight's US inflation data to possibly exceed the levels of the past three months, recording 2.7%. Although the inflation data will have a significant impact on the market's short-term trends, the threshold for this CPI data to completely reverse interest rate cut expectations is relatively high, especially with a 25 basis point cut almost a certainty. As of the time of writing, the interest rate market bets on an 86% probability of a 25 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve next week.
It is reported that most Federal Reserve officials still have high hopes for mid-term targets, but the path for inflation to return to the Fed's 2% target seems increasingly difficult. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated last week that a strong US economy means that the Federal Open Market Committee can be 'more cautious' on the path to lowering rates to neutral levels. Some opinions suggest that in the short term, economic cooling will support the Fed's continued rate cuts, but combined with concerns about re-inflation after Trump's potential re-election, it may constrain the medium to long-term space for rate cuts. The market expects the Federal Reserve to likely remain unchanged at the beginning of next year.
Capital inflow, accelerating the trend of Bitcoin's mainstream acceptance
Currently, the market has basically digested the expectation of the Federal Reserve continuing to cut rates this month. On a daily level, the US dollar index shows further signs of strengthening, while the Nasdaq has been in a bearish trend, but it has consistently found support near the EMA52 moving average for nearly a quarter. Meanwhile, BTC is experiencing a critical turning point. After breaking through $100,000, Bitcoin has experienced two extreme sell-offs, but this aligns with the expectations of Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz. He had warned that a global wave of Bitcoin buying is underway, but there is significant leverage within the system, which may lead to one or two sharp corrections.
Moreover, US institutional investors are aggressively buying Bitcoin. From the already involved MicroStrategy and Tesla to potential entrants like Microsoft and Amazon, the pace at which Bitcoin is expanding into the mainstream world seems to be accelerating.
Meanwhile, the scale of funds for the US spot BTC ETF continues to expand, achieving net inflows for eight consecutive trading days, totaling as much as $3.969 billion. This trend of capital inflow indicates a long-term bullish sentiment towards Bitcoin.
Additionally, sources reveal that Trump is very focused on Bitcoin's price and is now 'hoping' for Bitcoin to continue rising and eventually break through $150,000.
Expectations for new Bitcoin highs
The market consensus seems to be that Bitcoin will sprint to $120,000, or even $150,000.
Main players are bullish
Large holders have strong confidence in Bitcoin's future price. According to major order tracking, large holders are bullish in the short term, expecting it to reach $100,000 to $105,000, and Binance spot large holders have placed a massive order of $149 million within this range; for a longer-term outlook, major players are bullish up to $110,000 to $120,000. Combining all-depth data, Coinbase large holders have placed a sell order of $22 million (≈200 BTC) at the $110,000 level and bet over $24.6 million (≈205 BTC) at the $120,000 level.
At the same time, Coinbase's premium has turned positive, and the main players in the US market have shifted back to buying, further confirming the market's positive sentiment.
The technical outlook is positive
• Short-term: BTC has formed a W-bottom pattern in the 30-minute and 1-hour cycles. If it breaks through $98,135 to $98,320, it will again challenge the $100,000 mark.
• Medium-term: BTC is supported by the Vegas channel in the 4-hour cycle; the 8-hour cycle is currently testing the MA40 moving average resistance. If it breaks through, the prospect of returning to $100,000 will be validated again.
• Long-term: A strong adjustment structure has appeared. Although the MACD fast and slow lines are at the zero axis, the price remains above EMA24, indicating the possibility of a significant upward trend.
In summary, tonight's CPI data will be an important factor influencing short-term market trends, but it is unlikely to shake the Federal Reserve's expectation of rate cuts. Looking at the long term, BTC momentum remains strong, and future market conditions may still see breakthrough developments.
