1. General trend
Current context:
The current price of ETH/USDT is $3,673.08, with a drop of -1.76%.
The candles show a retracement after a strong recent bullish rally.
The price has temporarily exited the bullish channel, suggesting a possible period of consolidation or correction.
2. Technical indicators:
Bollinger Bands (BB):
The BB limits are:
Upper: $4,030.70
Average: $3,637.62
Lower: $3,244.55
The current price is near the midline, indicating it is in a phase of possible consolidation. If the price breaks the midband and the lower band, greater downward pressure can be expected.
Exponential moving average (EMA 9):
The EMA 9 is at $3,745.80, above the current price.
This indicates that, in the short term, the trend is bearish.
RSI (14 periods):
Current value: 55.62 (neutral zone).
Although it is far from overbought or oversold levels, the loss of momentum suggests a possible bearish continuation if the RSI breaks the 50 level.
MACD:
MACD line: -48.04
Signal: 42.24
Histogram in negative, showing loss of bullish momentum. This supports a possible retracement.
Volume:
Volume is decreasing, reinforcing the idea of consolidation or exhaustion of the recent bullish trend.
Daily chart conclusion:
The price could seek support at key levels such as $3,516.88 (marked in green) or even $3,244.55 if downward pressure intensifies.
The overall trend is neutral-bearish in the short term, but still within a bullish channel in the medium term.
Order book analysis.
1. Spot:
Important resistances:
$4,400 with 2,582.29 ETH.
$4,300 with 3,309 ETH.
Key supports:
$3,600 with 5,056.57 ETH.
$3,500 with 6,571.8 ETH.
$3,300 with 4,937.59 ETH.
Observation: There is significant buying interest between $3,300 and $3,600, which could act as support in case of a drop.
2. Perpetuals.
Relevant resistances:
$4,050 with 3,915.54 ETH.
$4,000 with 8,723.05 ETH.
Important supports:
$3,700 with 37,150.55 ETH.
$3,650 with 33,198.96 ETH.
$3,600 with 24,508.28 ETH.
Observation: There is significant accumulation of orders at $3,700, which could serve as an important psychological support.
Liquidation map:
The most concentrated liquidation zones are around $3,600 (longs) and $4,000 (shorts).
This suggests a possible movement towards those levels before a direction change.
Trading simulation
Entry: Short at $3,750 (immediate resistance).
Stop Loss: $3.85 (important resistance).
Take Profit: $3,500 (first key support).
Risk/reward: 1:2.
Leverage: x15.
Fundamentals: Retracement in bearish trend in the short term confirmed by indicators and orders in the book.
Entry: Long at $3,300 (accumulation level in spot and futures books).
Stop Loss: $3,200 (confirmation of bearish breakout).
Take Profit: $4,200 (historical resistance and high interest in the book).
Risk/reward: 1:4.
Leverage: x15.
Fundamentals: Accumulated support indicates possible recovery towards highs.
Summary:
The detailed analysis suggests that ETH/USDT is in a correction phase with support at $3,500-3,600, while key resistance levels are $4,000-4,200. Short and medium-term trades are based on retracements and bounces, while the long term seeks to capitalize on accumulated support.
